Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California’s 1st Congressional District toward Democratic voters, producing the current trader consensus that Mike McGuire holds a commanding lead over incumbent James Gallagher for the November general election. Gallagher won the June special election for the remainder of the prior term under the old boundaries and advanced from the top-two primary, yet nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. McGuire benefits from the updated partisan composition and Democratic registration edge, while Gallagher’s path is narrowed by the district’s lean. Late developments such as unusually high Republican turnout, major national shifts, or candidate-specific events remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$35,037 Vol.
$35,037 Vol.
2026/11/02
マイク・マグワイア（民主党）
97%
ジェームズ・ギャラガー（共和党）
3%
$35,037 Vol.
$35,037 Vol.
2026/11/02
マイク・マグワイア（民主党）
$26,310 Vol.
97%
ジェームズ・ギャラガー（共和党）
$8,727 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California’s 1st Congressional District toward Democratic voters, producing the current trader consensus that Mike McGuire holds a commanding lead over incumbent James Gallagher for the November general election. Gallagher won the June special election for the remainder of the prior term under the old boundaries and advanced from the top-two primary, yet nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. McGuire benefits from the updated partisan composition and Democratic registration edge, while Gallagher’s path is narrowed by the district’s lean. Late developments such as unusually high Republican turnout, major national shifts, or candidate-specific events remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$35,037終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California’s 1st Congressional District toward Democratic voters, producing the current trader consensus that Mike McGuire holds a commanding lead over incumbent James Gallagher for the November general election. Gallagher won the June special election for the remainder of the prior term under the old boundaries and advanced from the top-two primary, yet nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. McGuire benefits from the updated partisan composition and Democratic registration edge, while Gallagher’s path is narrowed by the district’s lean. Late developments such as unusually high Republican turnout, major national shifts, or candidate-specific events remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$35,037終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 shifted California’s 1st Congressional District toward Democratic voters, producing the current trader consensus that Mike McGuire holds a commanding lead over incumbent James Gallagher for the November general election. Gallagher won the June special election for the remainder of the prior term under the old boundaries and advanced from the top-two primary, yet nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. McGuire benefits from the updated partisan composition and Democratic registration edge, while Gallagher’s path is narrowed by the district’s lean. Late developments such as unusually high Republican turnout, major national shifts, or candidate-specific events remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問