Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 shifted the 6th District boundaries to favor Democrats by several points on the partisan voting index, prompting former Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to run as no party preference while still caucusing with Republicans. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Kiley and Democrat Richard Pan advanced to the November 3 general election in a district rated solid or likely Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. Trader consensus at 94.9% for a Democratic winner reflects the district's voter composition, historical margins, and limited path for an independent or Republican challenger. Low-probability shifts could still occur from late developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or unusually high turnout favoring one side.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$49,908 Vol.
$49,908 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
95%
共和党
3%
$49,908 Vol.
$49,908 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$25,535 Vol.
95%
共和党
$24,373 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 shifted the 6th District boundaries to favor Democrats by several points on the partisan voting index, prompting former Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to run as no party preference while still caucusing with Republicans. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Kiley and Democrat Richard Pan advanced to the November 3 general election in a district rated solid or likely Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. Trader consensus at 94.9% for a Democratic winner reflects the district's voter composition, historical margins, and limited path for an independent or Republican challenger. Low-probability shifts could still occur from late developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or unusually high turnout favoring one side.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$49,908終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 shifted the 6th District boundaries to favor Democrats by several points on the partisan voting index, prompting former Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to run as no party preference while still caucusing with Republicans. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Kiley and Democrat Richard Pan advanced to the November 3 general election in a district rated solid or likely Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. Trader consensus at 94.9% for a Democratic winner reflects the district's voter composition, historical margins, and limited path for an independent or Republican challenger. Low-probability shifts could still occur from late developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or unusually high turnout favoring one side.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$49,908終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under California's Proposition 50 shifted the 6th District boundaries to favor Democrats by several points on the partisan voting index, prompting former Republican incumbent Kevin Kiley to run as no party preference while still caucusing with Republicans. In the June 2026 top-two primary, Kiley and Democrat Richard Pan advanced to the November 3 general election in a district rated solid or likely Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. Trader consensus at 94.9% for a Democratic winner reflects the district's voter composition, historical margins, and limited path for an independent or Republican challenger. Low-probability shifts could still occur from late developments such as candidate health issues, major scandals, or unusually high turnout favoring one side.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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