Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock holds a commanding lead in the California 5th congressional district race, reflecting the seat’s R+10 partisan voter index and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. McClintock advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary and benefits from long-standing incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and alignment with the district’s rural and conservative-leaning electorate across counties such as Stanislaus and Madera. Challenger Michael Masuda, the Democratic nominee, faces structural barriers in a district redrawn under Proposition 50 that preserved Republican strength. Trader consensus could shift only with major late developments such as unexpected national political realignments, candidate health events, or significant campaign finance changes before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$10,380 Vol.
$10,380 Vol.
2026/11/02
トム・マクリントック（共和党）
95%
マイケル・マスダ（民主党）
5%
$10,380 Vol.
$10,380 Vol.
2026/11/02
トム・マクリントック（共和党）
$6,757 Vol.
95%
マイケル・マスダ（民主党）
$3,623 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock holds a commanding lead in the California 5th congressional district race, reflecting the seat’s R+10 partisan voter index and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. McClintock advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary and benefits from long-standing incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and alignment with the district’s rural and conservative-leaning electorate across counties such as Stanislaus and Madera. Challenger Michael Masuda, the Democratic nominee, faces structural barriers in a district redrawn under Proposition 50 that preserved Republican strength. Trader consensus could shift only with major late developments such as unexpected national political realignments, candidate health events, or significant campaign finance changes before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$10,380終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock holds a commanding lead in the California 5th congressional district race, reflecting the seat’s R+10 partisan voter index and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. McClintock advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary and benefits from long-standing incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and alignment with the district’s rural and conservative-leaning electorate across counties such as Stanislaus and Madera. Challenger Michael Masuda, the Democratic nominee, faces structural barriers in a district redrawn under Proposition 50 that preserved Republican strength. Trader consensus could shift only with major late developments such as unexpected national political realignments, candidate health events, or significant campaign finance changes before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$10,380終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom McClintock holds a commanding lead in the California 5th congressional district race, reflecting the seat’s R+10 partisan voter index and consistent Solid Republican ratings from forecasters. McClintock advanced comfortably from the June 2026 top-two primary and benefits from long-standing incumbency advantages, superior fundraising, and alignment with the district’s rural and conservative-leaning electorate across counties such as Stanislaus and Madera. Challenger Michael Masuda, the Democratic nominee, faces structural barriers in a district redrawn under Proposition 50 that preserved Republican strength. Trader consensus could shift only with major late developments such as unexpected national political realignments, candidate health events, or significant campaign finance changes before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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