Kevin Mullin secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with 65% of the vote, advancing alongside Republican Charles Hoelter, who received 18%. The district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its partisan voter index and consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the incumbent. Mullin benefits from established name recognition, prior reelection margins exceeding 70%, and a substantial fundraising edge, while Hoelter has reported minimal campaign resources. Race ratings from multiple forecasters classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Shifts in odds would require major developments such as a late scandal, significant health event, or broad national political realignment capable of overcoming the district's structural lean.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$122,366 Vol.
$122,366 Vol.
2026/11/02
ケビン・マリン（民主党）
96%
チャールズ・ヘルター（共和党）
<1%
$122,366 Vol.
$122,366 Vol.
2026/11/02
ケビン・マリン（民主党）
$94,061 Vol.
96%
チャールズ・ヘルター（共和党）
$28,305 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kevin Mullin secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with 65% of the vote, advancing alongside Republican Charles Hoelter, who received 18%. The district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its partisan voter index and consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the incumbent. Mullin benefits from established name recognition, prior reelection margins exceeding 70%, and a substantial fundraising edge, while Hoelter has reported minimal campaign resources. Race ratings from multiple forecasters classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Shifts in odds would require major developments such as a late scandal, significant health event, or broad national political realignment capable of overcoming the district's structural lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$122,366終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kevin Mullin secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with 65% of the vote, advancing alongside Republican Charles Hoelter, who received 18%. The district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its partisan voter index and consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the incumbent. Mullin benefits from established name recognition, prior reelection margins exceeding 70%, and a substantial fundraising edge, while Hoelter has reported minimal campaign resources. Race ratings from multiple forecasters classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Shifts in odds would require major developments such as a late scandal, significant health event, or broad national political realignment capable of overcoming the district's structural lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$122,366終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Kevin Mullin secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with 65% of the vote, advancing alongside Republican Charles Hoelter, who received 18%. The district's strong Democratic tilt, reflected in its partisan voter index and consistent support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the incumbent. Mullin benefits from established name recognition, prior reelection margins exceeding 70%, and a substantial fundraising edge, while Hoelter has reported minimal campaign resources. Race ratings from multiple forecasters classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Shifts in odds would require major developments such as a late scandal, significant health event, or broad national political realignment capable of overcoming the district's structural lean.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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