Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in the CA-24 House race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 Cook Partisan Voter Index, combined with his status as a multi-term incumbent who secured 54.4% in the June 2026 top-two primary against Republican Bob Smith. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, supported by Carbajal's substantial fundraising edge. Trader consensus in the market aligns with this structural advantage. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap remain limited and would likely require major late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift altering turnout patterns in this coastal California district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$50,881 Vol.
$50,881 Vol.
2026/11/02
サルード・カルバハル（民主党）
98%
ボブ・スミス（共和党）
2%
$50,881 Vol.
$50,881 Vol.
2026/11/02
サルード・カルバハル（民主党）
$32,528 Vol.
98%
ボブ・スミス（共和党）
$18,352 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in the CA-24 House race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 Cook Partisan Voter Index, combined with his status as a multi-term incumbent who secured 54.4% in the June 2026 top-two primary against Republican Bob Smith. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, supported by Carbajal's substantial fundraising edge. Trader consensus in the market aligns with this structural advantage. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap remain limited and would likely require major late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift altering turnout patterns in this coastal California district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
音量
$50,881終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in the CA-24 House race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 Cook Partisan Voter Index, combined with his status as a multi-term incumbent who secured 54.4% in the June 2026 top-two primary against Republican Bob Smith. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, supported by Carbajal's substantial fundraising edge. Trader consensus in the market aligns with this structural advantage. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap remain limited and would likely require major late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift altering turnout patterns in this coastal California district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$50,881終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in the CA-24 House race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 Cook Partisan Voter Index, combined with his status as a multi-term incumbent who secured 54.4% in the June 2026 top-two primary against Republican Bob Smith. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election, supported by Carbajal's substantial fundraising edge. Trader consensus in the market aligns with this structural advantage. Scenarios that could realistically narrow the gap remain limited and would likely require major late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or an unexpected national political shift altering turnout patterns in this coastal California district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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