Xi Jinping’s extensive anti-corruption purges across the People’s Liberation Army and senior party ranks through 2026 have reinforced centralized control rather than exposed fractures, with dozens of generals removed and replacements drawn from loyal networks. This pattern, combined with China’s surveillance apparatus, party discipline mechanisms, and absence of public elite defections or military dissent, underpins trader consensus on stability through early 2027. The upcoming 21st Party Congress in 2027 is expected to manage leadership turnover via established processes rather than upheaval. While low-probability catalysts such as an abrupt leadership health event or severe economic disruption could theoretically create openings for factional maneuvering, verifiable developments show no near-term erosion of the current power structure.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
$155,515 Vol.
$155,515 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
4% 確率
$155,515 Vol.
$155,515 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive anti-corruption purges across the People’s Liberation Army and senior party ranks through 2026 have reinforced centralized control rather than exposed fractures, with dozens of generals removed and replacements drawn from loyal networks. This pattern, combined with China’s surveillance apparatus, party discipline mechanisms, and absence of public elite defections or military dissent, underpins trader consensus on stability through early 2027. The upcoming 21st Party Congress in 2027 is expected to manage leadership turnover via established processes rather than upheaval. While low-probability catalysts such as an abrupt leadership health event or severe economic disruption could theoretically create openings for factional maneuvering, verifiable developments show no near-term erosion of the current power structure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$155,515終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive anti-corruption purges across the People’s Liberation Army and senior party ranks through 2026 have reinforced centralized control rather than exposed fractures, with dozens of generals removed and replacements drawn from loyal networks. This pattern, combined with China’s surveillance apparatus, party discipline mechanisms, and absence of public elite defections or military dissent, underpins trader consensus on stability through early 2027. The upcoming 21st Party Congress in 2027 is expected to manage leadership turnover via established processes rather than upheaval. While low-probability catalysts such as an abrupt leadership health event or severe economic disruption could theoretically create openings for factional maneuvering, verifiable developments show no near-term erosion of the current power structure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$155,515終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s extensive anti-corruption purges across the People’s Liberation Army and senior party ranks through 2026 have reinforced centralized control rather than exposed fractures, with dozens of generals removed and replacements drawn from loyal networks. This pattern, combined with China’s surveillance apparatus, party discipline mechanisms, and absence of public elite defections or military dissent, underpins trader consensus on stability through early 2027. The upcoming 21st Party Congress in 2027 is expected to manage leadership turnover via established processes rather than upheaval. While low-probability catalysts such as an abrupt leadership health event or severe economic disruption could theoretically create openings for factional maneuvering, verifiable developments show no near-term erosion of the current power structure.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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