The EU's treaty-based legal architecture, single market integration, and eurozone structures continue to anchor institutional continuity, with no coordinated member-state initiatives or official processes underway to repeal core treaties or trigger mass withdrawals before the end of 2026. Recent budget negotiations for the next multiannual framework and coordinated defense spending responses to geopolitical pressures instead highlight ongoing efforts at adaptation and reform among the 27 members. Trader consensus at 98.9% for no dissolution reflects this baseline stability and historical resilience through prior crises. Remote pathways to reversal remain tied to extreme synchronized fiscal defaults or unforeseen external shocks capable of upending qualified majority decision-making within the short resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日EUは2027年までに解散しますか？
EUは2027年までに解散しますか？
はい
1% 確率
$180,222 Vol.
$180,222 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
1% 確率
$180,222 Vol.
$180,222 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The EU's treaty-based legal architecture, single market integration, and eurozone structures continue to anchor institutional continuity, with no coordinated member-state initiatives or official processes underway to repeal core treaties or trigger mass withdrawals before the end of 2026. Recent budget negotiations for the next multiannual framework and coordinated defense spending responses to geopolitical pressures instead highlight ongoing efforts at adaptation and reform among the 27 members. Trader consensus at 98.9% for no dissolution reflects this baseline stability and historical resilience through prior crises. Remote pathways to reversal remain tied to extreme synchronized fiscal defaults or unforeseen external shocks capable of upending qualified majority decision-making within the short resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
音量
$180,222終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The EU's treaty-based legal architecture, single market integration, and eurozone structures continue to anchor institutional continuity, with no coordinated member-state initiatives or official processes underway to repeal core treaties or trigger mass withdrawals before the end of 2026. Recent budget negotiations for the next multiannual framework and coordinated defense spending responses to geopolitical pressures instead highlight ongoing efforts at adaptation and reform among the 27 members. Trader consensus at 98.9% for no dissolution reflects this baseline stability and historical resilience through prior crises. Remote pathways to reversal remain tied to extreme synchronized fiscal defaults or unforeseen external shocks capable of upending qualified majority decision-making within the short resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$180,222終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The EU's treaty-based legal architecture, single market integration, and eurozone structures continue to anchor institutional continuity, with no coordinated member-state initiatives or official processes underway to repeal core treaties or trigger mass withdrawals before the end of 2026. Recent budget negotiations for the next multiannual framework and coordinated defense spending responses to geopolitical pressures instead highlight ongoing efforts at adaptation and reform among the 27 members. Trader consensus at 98.9% for no dissolution reflects this baseline stability and historical resilience through prior crises. Remote pathways to reversal remain tied to extreme synchronized fiscal defaults or unforeseen external shocks capable of upending qualified majority decision-making within the short resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問