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icon for 2026年の人類最後の試験で最高のGrokスコアを獲得しましたか?

2026年の人類最後の試験で最高のGrokスコアを獲得しましたか?

icon for 2026年の人類最後の試験で最高のGrokスコアを獲得しましたか?

2026年の人類最後の試験で最高のGrokスコアを獲得しましたか?

$63,515 Vol.

2026/12/31
Polymarket

$63,515 Vol.

Polymarket

45%以上

$27,818 Vol.

72%

50%以上

$7,075 Vol.

48%

55%以上

$14,134 Vol.

36%

60%以上

$12,455 Vol.

25%

65%以上

$2,034 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Grok models currently trail on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities, with Grok 4.6 at 42.9% and Grok 4.5 at 42.7% as of late August 2026.** Top entries from Anthropic (Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 near 65%) and others like Meta’s Muse Spark exceed 55–62%, reflecting faster progress from reasoning-focused training, larger scale, and architectural advances at competing labs. xAI’s releases have lifted Grok scores steadily since 2025, but the gap persists on verified, no-tools leaderboards. Trader sentiment for thresholds like 45%+ (favored) versus 55%+ or higher (lower odds) centers on whether upcoming Grok iterations or tool-augmented variants can close this distance before year-end, amid ongoing rapid benchmark gains industry-wide but xAI’s more modest recent verified improvements.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$63,515
終了日
2027/01/01
マーケット開始日
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET

結算ソース

https://agi.safe.ai/

リゾルバー

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Grok models currently trail on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities, with Grok 4.6 at 42.9% and Grok 4.5 at 42.7% as of late August 2026.** Top entries from Anthropic (Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 near 65%) and others like Meta’s Muse Spark exceed 55–62%, reflecting faster progress from reasoning-focused training, larger scale, and architectural advances at competing labs. xAI’s releases have lifted Grok scores steadily since 2025, but the gap persists on verified, no-tools leaderboards. Trader sentiment for thresholds like 45%+ (favored) versus 55%+ or higher (lower odds) centers on whether upcoming Grok iterations or tool-augmented variants can close this distance before year-end, amid ongoing rapid benchmark gains industry-wide but xAI’s more modest recent verified improvements.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$63,515
終了日
2027/01/01
マーケット開始日
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET

結算ソース

https://agi.safe.ai/

リゾルバー

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「2026年の人類最後の試験で最高のGrokスコアを獲得しましたか?」はPolymarket上の5個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「45%以上」で72%、次いで「50%以上」が48%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、72¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に72%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年の人類最後の試験で最高のGrokスコアを獲得しましたか?」は$63.5Kの総取引量を生み出しています(Jul 23, 2026のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年の人類最後の試験で最高のGrokスコアを獲得しましたか?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている5個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年の人類最後の試験で最高のGrokスコアを獲得しましたか?」の現在のフロントランナーは「45%以上」で72%であり、市場がこの結果に72%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「50%以上」で48%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年の人類最後の試験で最高のGrokスコアを獲得しましたか?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。