**Grok models currently trail on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities, with Grok 4.6 at 42.9% and Grok 4.5 at 42.7% as of late August 2026.** Top entries from Anthropic (Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 near 65%) and others like Meta’s Muse Spark exceed 55–62%, reflecting faster progress from reasoning-focused training, larger scale, and architectural advances at competing labs. xAI’s releases have lifted Grok scores steadily since 2025, but the gap persists on verified, no-tools leaderboards. Trader sentiment for thresholds like 45%+ (favored) versus 55%+ or higher (lower odds) centers on whether upcoming Grok iterations or tool-augmented variants can close this distance before year-end, amid ongoing rapid benchmark gains industry-wide but xAI’s more modest recent verified improvements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$63,515 Vol.
45%以上
72%
50%以上
48%
55%以上
36%
60%以上
25%
65%以上
9%
$63,515 Vol.
45%以上
72%
50%以上
48%
55%以上
36%
60%以上
25%
65%以上
9%
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日: Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
結算ソース
https://agi.safe.ai/リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
結算ソース
https://agi.safe.ai/リゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Grok models currently trail on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities, with Grok 4.6 at 42.9% and Grok 4.5 at 42.7% as of late August 2026.** Top entries from Anthropic (Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 near 65%) and others like Meta’s Muse Spark exceed 55–62%, reflecting faster progress from reasoning-focused training, larger scale, and architectural advances at competing labs. xAI’s releases have lifted Grok scores steadily since 2025, but the gap persists on verified, no-tools leaderboards. Trader sentiment for thresholds like 45%+ (favored) versus 55%+ or higher (lower odds) centers on whether upcoming Grok iterations or tool-augmented variants can close this distance before year-end, amid ongoing rapid benchmark gains industry-wide but xAI’s more modest recent verified improvements.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日



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