Kelly Morrison's position as the Democratic incumbent in Minnesota's 3rd congressional district drives the market's 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic win. The western Twin Cities suburbs have shown consistent Democratic preference, reflected in a D+11 Partisan Voter Index and her 58.4% victory in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reinforced by Morrison advancing unopposed in the August primary while Republican nominee Tyler Bass prevailed in a competitive primary. Traders weigh these structural factors alongside historical margins and limited recent polling. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national shift favoring Republicans, an unforeseen candidate-specific development, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$21,966 Vol.
$21,966 Vol.
2026/11/02
ケリー・モリソン（民主党）
95%
タイラー・バス（共和党）
6%
$21,966 Vol.
$21,966 Vol.
2026/11/02
ケリー・モリソン（民主党）
$12,428 Vol.
95%
タイラー・バス（共和党）
$9,538 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kelly Morrison's position as the Democratic incumbent in Minnesota's 3rd congressional district drives the market's 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic win. The western Twin Cities suburbs have shown consistent Democratic preference, reflected in a D+11 Partisan Voter Index and her 58.4% victory in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reinforced by Morrison advancing unopposed in the August primary while Republican nominee Tyler Bass prevailed in a competitive primary. Traders weigh these structural factors alongside historical margins and limited recent polling. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national shift favoring Republicans, an unforeseen candidate-specific development, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$21,966終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kelly Morrison's position as the Democratic incumbent in Minnesota's 3rd congressional district drives the market's 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic win. The western Twin Cities suburbs have shown consistent Democratic preference, reflected in a D+11 Partisan Voter Index and her 58.4% victory in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reinforced by Morrison advancing unopposed in the August primary while Republican nominee Tyler Bass prevailed in a competitive primary. Traders weigh these structural factors alongside historical margins and limited recent polling. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national shift favoring Republicans, an unforeseen candidate-specific development, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$21,966終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Kelly Morrison's position as the Democratic incumbent in Minnesota's 3rd congressional district drives the market's 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic win. The western Twin Cities suburbs have shown consistent Democratic preference, reflected in a D+11 Partisan Voter Index and her 58.4% victory in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reinforced by Morrison advancing unopposed in the August primary while Republican nominee Tyler Bass prevailed in a competitive primary. Traders weigh these structural factors alongside historical margins and limited recent polling. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national shift favoring Republicans, an unforeseen candidate-specific development, or unusually high turnout favoring the challenger ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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