Anthropic’s rapid frontier model cadence after the June 9, 2026 launch of Claude Fable 5 and restricted Claude Mythos 5 is the main driver pushing trader consensus toward an early September release for the next Mythos-class large language model. The prior cycle—from April preview to public availability—established a roughly three-month benchmark that markets now treat as precedent amid ongoing competitive pressure from OpenAI, Google, and others in agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks. Recent developer signals and internal timeline inferences have shifted implied probabilities sharply earlier, with high odds on a qualifying public release by early September and near-certainty by month-end. Key upcoming catalysts include any official announcements, API expansions, or Text Arena leaderboard debuts that could confirm or delay the timeline, while access restrictions and safety evaluations remain the primary variables that could alter resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$872,711 Vol.
2026/08/30
8月31日
5%
9月1日
56%
9月2日
65%
9月4日
77%
9月7日
80%
9月9日
88%
9月15日
89%
9月30日
92%
10月31日
96%
$872,711 Vol.
8月31日
$361,402 Vol.
5%
9月1日
$48,590 Vol.
56%
9月2日
$25,732 Vol.
65%
9月4日
$20,789 Vol.
77%
9月7日
$15,250 Vol.
80%
9月9日
$93,325 Vol.
88%
9月15日
$52,204 Vol.
89%
9月30日
$179,961 Vol.
92%
10月31日
$33,384 Vol.
96%
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Anthropic’s rapid frontier model cadence after the June 9, 2026 launch of Claude Fable 5 and restricted Claude Mythos 5 is the main driver pushing trader consensus toward an early September release for the next Mythos-class large language model. The prior cycle—from April preview to public availability—established a roughly three-month benchmark that markets now treat as precedent amid ongoing competitive pressure from OpenAI, Google, and others in agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks. Recent developer signals and internal timeline inferences have shifted implied probabilities sharply earlier, with high odds on a qualifying public release by early September and near-certainty by month-end. Key upcoming catalysts include any official announcements, API expansions, or Text Arena leaderboard debuts that could confirm or delay the timeline, while access restrictions and safety evaluations remain the primary variables that could alter resolution.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jun 10, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$872,711終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Jun 10, 2026, 11:10 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Anthropic’s rapid frontier model cadence after the June 9, 2026 launch of Claude Fable 5 and restricted Claude Mythos 5 is the main driver pushing trader consensus toward an early September release for the next Mythos-class large language model. The prior cycle—from April preview to public availability—established a roughly three-month benchmark that markets now treat as precedent amid ongoing competitive pressure from OpenAI, Google, and others in agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks. Recent developer signals and internal timeline inferences have shifted implied probabilities sharply earlier, with high odds on a qualifying public release by early September and near-certainty by month-end. Key upcoming catalysts include any official announcements, API expansions, or Text Arena leaderboard debuts that could confirm or delay the timeline, while access restrictions and safety evaluations remain the primary variables that could alter resolution.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the Mythos-class model Claude Fable 5.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic releases the next Mythos-class model and makes it available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any model whose official name includes “Mythos,” or that Anthropic officially describes as a “Mythos-class” model or similar, will qualify for this market’s resolution.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$872,711終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Jun 10, 2026, 11:10 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s rapid frontier model cadence after the June 9, 2026 launch of Claude Fable 5 and restricted Claude Mythos 5 is the main driver pushing trader consensus toward an early September release for the next Mythos-class large language model. The prior cycle—from April preview to public availability—established a roughly three-month benchmark that markets now treat as precedent amid ongoing competitive pressure from OpenAI, Google, and others in agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks. Recent developer signals and internal timeline inferences have shifted implied probabilities sharply earlier, with high odds on a qualifying public release by early September and near-certainty by month-end. Key upcoming catalysts include any official announcements, API expansions, or Text Arena leaderboard debuts that could confirm or delay the timeline, while access restrictions and safety evaluations remain the primary variables that could alter resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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