Recent polls from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and others place the AfD at 40–43 percent ahead of the September 6 election, roughly double its 2021 share, while the CDU has fallen to 22–24 percent. This sustained lead, driven by voter preferences on migration and state-level issues, underpins trader consensus that the AfD will finish first in seats or votes. Other parties remain well behind, with the Left, SPD, and Greens each polling in single digits or low teens and smaller groups like the FDP and BSW near or below the five-percent threshold. A broad firewall prevents AfD participation in any coalition, yet that isolation does not alter its position as the strongest single party. With the vote days away, scenarios that could still shift the outcome include last-minute swings among undecided voters (estimated at 10–30 percent in recent surveys) or differential turnout, though current data indicate limited scope for such reversals before election day.