Recent August CPI data at 3.4% year-over-year, with core rising 0.3% month-over-month above expectations amid sharp gasoline gains and elevated energy prices, anchors trader focus for the September annual reading. Persistent shelter costs and services inflation, alongside broader pressures from tariffs and producer costs, support market-implied odds clustering tightly around 3.5% and 3.6%. These outcomes reflect uncertainty over whether cooling trends in goods or seasonal factors will offset energy volatility. The Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 policy decision and October 14 CPI release represent key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities based on incoming labor market and inflation signals.