California's 1st congressional district underwent significant redistricting through Proposition 50, shifting boundaries to include more Democratic-leaning areas such as portions of Sonoma and Mendocino counties while removing conservative strongholds. This structural change has shaped trader consensus around Democratic state Sen. Mike McGuire's strong position heading into the November 3 general election against Republican incumbent Rep. James Gallagher. McGuire advanced from the June primary alongside Gallagher after consolidating Democratic support, while the special election for the prior term occurred under different lines. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing accounts for the altered electoral math, historical patterns in newly configured seats, and Gallagher's shorter time as the sitting member under the updated map. Factors that could still influence the outcome include turnout differentials, late campaign developments, or shifts in voter sentiment within the resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa CA-01
Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-01
$35,032 Vol.
$35,032 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Mike McGuire (D)
97%
James Gallagher (R)
2%
$35,032 Vol.
$35,032 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Mike McGuire (D)
$26,310 Vol.
97%
James Gallagher (R)
$8,722 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 1st congressional district underwent significant redistricting through Proposition 50, shifting boundaries to include more Democratic-leaning areas such as portions of Sonoma and Mendocino counties while removing conservative strongholds. This structural change has shaped trader consensus around Democratic state Sen. Mike McGuire's strong position heading into the November 3 general election against Republican incumbent Rep. James Gallagher. McGuire advanced from the June primary alongside Gallagher after consolidating Democratic support, while the special election for the prior term occurred under different lines. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing accounts for the altered electoral math, historical patterns in newly configured seats, and Gallagher's shorter time as the sitting member under the updated map. Factors that could still influence the outcome include turnout differentials, late campaign developments, or shifts in voter sentiment within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$35,032Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 1st congressional district underwent significant redistricting through Proposition 50, shifting boundaries to include more Democratic-leaning areas such as portions of Sonoma and Mendocino counties while removing conservative strongholds. This structural change has shaped trader consensus around Democratic state Sen. Mike McGuire's strong position heading into the November 3 general election against Republican incumbent Rep. James Gallagher. McGuire advanced from the June primary alongside Gallagher after consolidating Democratic support, while the special election for the prior term occurred under different lines. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing accounts for the altered electoral math, historical patterns in newly configured seats, and Gallagher's shorter time as the sitting member under the updated map. Factors that could still influence the outcome include turnout differentials, late campaign developments, or shifts in voter sentiment within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,032Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 1st congressional district underwent significant redistricting through Proposition 50, shifting boundaries to include more Democratic-leaning areas such as portions of Sonoma and Mendocino counties while removing conservative strongholds. This structural change has shaped trader consensus around Democratic state Sen. Mike McGuire's strong position heading into the November 3 general election against Republican incumbent Rep. James Gallagher. McGuire advanced from the June primary alongside Gallagher after consolidating Democratic support, while the special election for the prior term occurred under different lines. The wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing accounts for the altered electoral math, historical patterns in newly configured seats, and Gallagher's shorter time as the sitting member under the updated map. Factors that could still influence the outcome include turnout differentials, late campaign developments, or shifts in voter sentiment within the resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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