Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding position in the NY-04 House race due to her narrow 2024 victory that flipped the seat, combined with a Democratic registration edge in the Nassau County swing district and favorable nonpartisan ratings labeling it Lean or Tilt Democratic. Jeanine Driscoll secured the Republican nomination decisively in the June primary but has not generated sufficient momentum to close the gap in trader assessments of the November general election. The implied probability reflected in current pricing aligns with the district's recent electoral history of narrow margins and its structural Democratic advantage. Potential shifts could still arise from late-campaign developments such as major scandals, unexpected national political trends, turnout surges among suburban voters, or health-related events affecting either candidate before Election Day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Laura Gillen (D)
91%
Jeanine Driscoll (R)
8%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Laura Gillen (D)
$3,690 Vol.
91%
Jeanine Driscoll (R)
$2,126 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding position in the NY-04 House race due to her narrow 2024 victory that flipped the seat, combined with a Democratic registration edge in the Nassau County swing district and favorable nonpartisan ratings labeling it Lean or Tilt Democratic. Jeanine Driscoll secured the Republican nomination decisively in the June primary but has not generated sufficient momentum to close the gap in trader assessments of the November general election. The implied probability reflected in current pricing aligns with the district's recent electoral history of narrow margins and its structural Democratic advantage. Potential shifts could still arise from late-campaign developments such as major scandals, unexpected national political trends, turnout surges among suburban voters, or health-related events affecting either candidate before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$5,816Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding position in the NY-04 House race due to her narrow 2024 victory that flipped the seat, combined with a Democratic registration edge in the Nassau County swing district and favorable nonpartisan ratings labeling it Lean or Tilt Democratic. Jeanine Driscoll secured the Republican nomination decisively in the June primary but has not generated sufficient momentum to close the gap in trader assessments of the November general election. The implied probability reflected in current pricing aligns with the district's recent electoral history of narrow margins and its structural Democratic advantage. Potential shifts could still arise from late-campaign developments such as major scandals, unexpected national political trends, turnout surges among suburban voters, or health-related events affecting either candidate before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$5,816Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding position in the NY-04 House race due to her narrow 2024 victory that flipped the seat, combined with a Democratic registration edge in the Nassau County swing district and favorable nonpartisan ratings labeling it Lean or Tilt Democratic. Jeanine Driscoll secured the Republican nomination decisively in the June primary but has not generated sufficient momentum to close the gap in trader assessments of the November general election. The implied probability reflected in current pricing aligns with the district's recent electoral history of narrow margins and its structural Democratic advantage. Potential shifts could still arise from late-campaign developments such as major scandals, unexpected national political trends, turnout surges among suburban voters, or health-related events affecting either candidate before Election Day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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