Sam Liccardo, the Democratic incumbent, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 76 percent of the vote in California's 16th Congressional District, a seat rated Solid Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The district's strong partisan baseline, demonstrated by a wide 2024 presidential margin favoring Democrats, combined with Liccardo's substantial fundraising advantage and name recognition from prior service as San Jose mayor, underpins trader consensus on his general election prospects against Republican Peter Soule on November 3. Soule secured second place in the primary but trails significantly in resources and visibility. While late developments such as candidate health issues or national economic shifts could theoretically alter dynamics, the district's structural lean and primary results have produced limited movement in implied probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa CA-16
Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-16
$107,000 Vol.
$107,000 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Sam Liccardo (D)
98%
Peter Soulé (R)
2%
$107,000 Vol.
$107,000 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Sam Liccardo (D)
$52,842 Vol.
98%
Peter Soulé (R)
$54,158 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sam Liccardo, the Democratic incumbent, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 76 percent of the vote in California's 16th Congressional District, a seat rated Solid Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The district's strong partisan baseline, demonstrated by a wide 2024 presidential margin favoring Democrats, combined with Liccardo's substantial fundraising advantage and name recognition from prior service as San Jose mayor, underpins trader consensus on his general election prospects against Republican Peter Soule on November 3. Soule secured second place in the primary but trails significantly in resources and visibility. While late developments such as candidate health issues or national economic shifts could theoretically alter dynamics, the district's structural lean and primary results have produced limited movement in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$107,000Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Sam Liccardo, the Democratic incumbent, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 76 percent of the vote in California's 16th Congressional District, a seat rated Solid Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The district's strong partisan baseline, demonstrated by a wide 2024 presidential margin favoring Democrats, combined with Liccardo's substantial fundraising advantage and name recognition from prior service as San Jose mayor, underpins trader consensus on his general election prospects against Republican Peter Soule on November 3. Soule secured second place in the primary but trails significantly in resources and visibility. While late developments such as candidate health issues or national economic shifts could theoretically alter dynamics, the district's structural lean and primary results have produced limited movement in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$107,000Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Sam Liccardo, the Democratic incumbent, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 76 percent of the vote in California's 16th Congressional District, a seat rated Solid Democratic by forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball. The district's strong partisan baseline, demonstrated by a wide 2024 presidential margin favoring Democrats, combined with Liccardo's substantial fundraising advantage and name recognition from prior service as San Jose mayor, underpins trader consensus on his general election prospects against Republican Peter Soule on November 3. Soule secured second place in the primary but trails significantly in resources and visibility. While late developments such as candidate health issues or national economic shifts could theoretically alter dynamics, the district's structural lean and primary results have produced limited movement in implied probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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