Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 nonfarm payroll additions—well above consensus—has lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to approximately 58-60 percent, according to CME FedWatch pricing. With the target range currently at 3.50-3.75 percent, resilient labor conditions, persistent inflation pressures from supply constraints, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh have shifted trader consensus toward tightening. The August CPI release on September 11 will provide the final major input before the decision and dot plot update. Analysts at UBS now project two 25-basis-point hikes in 2026, while broader economist polls show a growing minority expecting at least one increase by year-end amid elevated productivity and AI-driven growth narratives.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$2,879,614 Vol.
8 dez 2026
Reunião de Setembro
53%
Reunião de Outubro
62%
$2,879,614 Vol.
Reunião de Setembro
$1,297,579 Vol.
53%
Reunião de Outubro
$622,035 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 nonfarm payroll additions—well above consensus—has lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to approximately 58-60 percent, according to CME FedWatch pricing. With the target range currently at 3.50-3.75 percent, resilient labor conditions, persistent inflation pressures from supply constraints, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh have shifted trader consensus toward tightening. The August CPI release on September 11 will provide the final major input before the decision and dot plot update. Analysts at UBS now project two 25-basis-point hikes in 2026, while broader economist polls show a growing minority expecting at least one increase by year-end amid elevated productivity and AI-driven growth narratives.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,879,614Data de Término
29 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 nonfarm payroll additions—well above consensus—has lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to approximately 58-60 percent, according to CME FedWatch pricing. With the target range currently at 3.50-3.75 percent, resilient labor conditions, persistent inflation pressures from supply constraints, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh have shifted trader consensus toward tightening. The August CPI release on September 11 will provide the final major input before the decision and dot plot update. Analysts at UBS now project two 25-basis-point hikes in 2026, while broader economist polls show a growing minority expecting at least one increase by year-end amid elevated productivity and AI-driven growth narratives.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,879,614Data de Término
29 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong August jobs data showing 162,000 nonfarm payroll additions—well above consensus—has lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to approximately 58-60 percent, according to CME FedWatch pricing. With the target range currently at 3.50-3.75 percent, resilient labor conditions, persistent inflation pressures from supply constraints, and hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh have shifted trader consensus toward tightening. The August CPI release on September 11 will provide the final major input before the decision and dot plot update. Analysts at UBS now project two 25-basis-point hikes in 2026, while broader economist polls show a growing minority expecting at least one increase by year-end amid elevated productivity and AI-driven growth narratives.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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