Recent strength in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by the September 4 jobs report showing nearly three times the expected payroll gains, has lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 59-62 percent. Persistent inflation above the 2 percent target, combined with hawkish commentary from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing the need for clearer disinflation progress, has shifted trader focus from potential cuts to possible 25-basis-point increases. The fed funds target range remains 3.50-3.75 percent, with futures pricing modest tightening by year-end amid resilient economic data. Key near-term catalysts include next week's CPI and PPI releases, which could reinforce or temper expectations ahead of the policy decision.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$2,848,796 Vol.
8 dez 2026
Reunião de Setembro
50%
Reunião de Outubro
62%
$2,848,796 Vol.
Reunião de Setembro
$1,269,036 Vol.
50%
Reunião de Outubro
$619,760 Vol.
62%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent strength in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by the September 4 jobs report showing nearly three times the expected payroll gains, has lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 59-62 percent. Persistent inflation above the 2 percent target, combined with hawkish commentary from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing the need for clearer disinflation progress, has shifted trader focus from potential cuts to possible 25-basis-point increases. The fed funds target range remains 3.50-3.75 percent, with futures pricing modest tightening by year-end amid resilient economic data. Key near-term catalysts include next week's CPI and PPI releases, which could reinforce or temper expectations ahead of the policy decision.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$2,848,796Data de Término
29 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent strength in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by the September 4 jobs report showing nearly three times the expected payroll gains, has lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 59-62 percent. Persistent inflation above the 2 percent target, combined with hawkish commentary from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing the need for clearer disinflation progress, has shifted trader focus from potential cuts to possible 25-basis-point increases. The fed funds target range remains 3.50-3.75 percent, with futures pricing modest tightening by year-end amid resilient economic data. Key near-term catalysts include next week's CPI and PPI releases, which could reinforce or temper expectations ahead of the policy decision.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,848,796Data de Término
29 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent strength in the U.S. labor market, highlighted by the September 4 jobs report showing nearly three times the expected payroll gains, has lifted market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 59-62 percent. Persistent inflation above the 2 percent target, combined with hawkish commentary from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing the need for clearer disinflation progress, has shifted trader focus from potential cuts to possible 25-basis-point increases. The fed funds target range remains 3.50-3.75 percent, with futures pricing modest tightening by year-end amid resilient economic data. Key near-term catalysts include next week's CPI and PPI releases, which could reinforce or temper expectations ahead of the policy decision.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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