Recent strong U.S. jobs data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target—driven by energy prices and Middle East supply disruptions—form the core driver behind closely matched probabilities across Fed decision sequences for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings. With the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, the FOMC’s June SEP median projected a 3.8% year-end rate amid upward revisions to PCE inflation forecasts, while new Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward guidance has heightened sensitivity to incoming data. Traders see roughly even odds between sustained pauses and one or more 25-basis-point hikes, reflecting balanced views on whether resilient payrolls and 4.1% unemployment will outweigh cooling signals or if inflation will necessitate tighter policy before year-end. Upcoming September CPI, employment reports, and the mid-month FOMC meeting remain key swing factors for resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPausa–Pausa–Pausa 31%
Aumento–Pausa–Pausa 19%
Aumentar–Aumentar–Pausar 14%
Aumentar–Pausar–Aumentar 10%
$13,668 Vol.
$13,668 Vol.
9 dez 2026
Aumentar–Pausar–Aumentar
10%
Aumento–Pausa–Pausa
19%
Aumentar–Aumentar–Aumentar
6%
Aumentar–Aumentar–Pausar
14%
Pausa–Pausa–Alta
6%
Pausa–Pausa–Pausa
31%
Pausar–Aumentar–Aumentar
4%
Pausar–Aumentar–Pausar
7%
Outro
7%
Pausa–Pausa–Pausa 31%
Aumento–Pausa–Pausa 19%
Aumentar–Aumentar–Pausar 14%
Aumentar–Pausar–Aumentar 10%
$13,668 Vol.
$13,668 Vol.
9 dez 2026
Aumentar–Pausar–Aumentar
$314 Vol.
10%
Aumento–Pausa–Pausa
$499 Vol.
19%
Aumentar–Aumentar–Aumentar
$216 Vol.
6%
Aumentar–Aumentar–Pausar
$429 Vol.
14%
Pausa–Pausa–Alta
$468 Vol.
6%
Pausa–Pausa–Pausa
$10,920 Vol.
31%
Pausar–Aumentar–Aumentar
$237 Vol.
4%
Pausar–Aumentar–Pausar
$336 Vol.
7%
Outro
$249 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strong U.S. jobs data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target—driven by energy prices and Middle East supply disruptions—form the core driver behind closely matched probabilities across Fed decision sequences for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings. With the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, the FOMC’s June SEP median projected a 3.8% year-end rate amid upward revisions to PCE inflation forecasts, while new Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward guidance has heightened sensitivity to incoming data. Traders see roughly even odds between sustained pauses and one or more 25-basis-point hikes, reflecting balanced views on whether resilient payrolls and 4.1% unemployment will outweigh cooling signals or if inflation will necessitate tighter policy before year-end. Upcoming September CPI, employment reports, and the mid-month FOMC meeting remain key swing factors for resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado Aberto: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$13,668Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent strong U.S. jobs data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target—driven by energy prices and Middle East supply disruptions—form the core driver behind closely matched probabilities across Fed decision sequences for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings. With the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, the FOMC’s June SEP median projected a 3.8% year-end rate amid upward revisions to PCE inflation forecasts, while new Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward guidance has heightened sensitivity to incoming data. Traders see roughly even odds between sustained pauses and one or more 25-basis-point hikes, reflecting balanced views on whether resilient payrolls and 4.1% unemployment will outweigh cooling signals or if inflation will necessitate tighter policy before year-end. Upcoming September CPI, employment reports, and the mid-month FOMC meeting remain key swing factors for resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$13,668Data de Término
9 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent strong U.S. jobs data and persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target—driven by energy prices and Middle East supply disruptions—form the core driver behind closely matched probabilities across Fed decision sequences for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings. With the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, the FOMC’s June SEP median projected a 3.8% year-end rate amid upward revisions to PCE inflation forecasts, while new Chair Kevin Warsh’s removal of forward guidance has heightened sensitivity to incoming data. Traders see roughly even odds between sustained pauses and one or more 25-basis-point hikes, reflecting balanced views on whether resilient payrolls and 4.1% unemployment will outweigh cooling signals or if inflation will necessitate tighter policy before year-end. Upcoming September CPI, employment reports, and the mid-month FOMC meeting remain key swing factors for resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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