The dismissal of the 2026 criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, coupled with a federal judge’s ruling that prosecutors presented no evidence of wrongdoing beyond policy disagreements, underpins the 97.3% market-implied probability assigned to “No.” With the investigation referred to the Fed’s inspector general and no active charges or indictments pending as of mid-September 2026, traders price in the strong institutional safeguards and historical precedent protecting senior central bankers from incarceration over monetary policy disputes. While tail risks such as an unforeseen revival of proceedings or novel legal maneuvers in a polarized environment remain theoretically possible, they lack supporting evidence in regulatory filings or official records and would require unprecedented departures from due process norms.