Mike Simpson’s commanding position in Idaho’s 2nd Congressional District stems from the seat’s consistent Republican lean (R+13 PVI), his nearly three-decade incumbency, and decisive victory in the May 2026 Republican primary. The district’s rural and eastern Idaho base has delivered Simpson repeated comfortable margins, while his campaign has raised over $1.1 million compared with Democratic nominee Ellie Gilbreath’s roughly $107,000. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and minimal national spending. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late-cycle event such as a major scandal, health development, or unusually strong Democratic turnout wave capable of overcoming the structural partisan advantage before the November 3 general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoID-02 Vencedor da eleição da casa
ID-02 Vencedor da eleição da casa
$34,399 Vol.
$34,399 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Mike Simpson (R)
95%
Ellie Gilbreath (D)
6%
$34,399 Vol.
$34,399 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Mike Simpson (R)
$14,241 Vol.
95%
Ellie Gilbreath (D)
$20,158 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mike Simpson’s commanding position in Idaho’s 2nd Congressional District stems from the seat’s consistent Republican lean (R+13 PVI), his nearly three-decade incumbency, and decisive victory in the May 2026 Republican primary. The district’s rural and eastern Idaho base has delivered Simpson repeated comfortable margins, while his campaign has raised over $1.1 million compared with Democratic nominee Ellie Gilbreath’s roughly $107,000. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and minimal national spending. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late-cycle event such as a major scandal, health development, or unusually strong Democratic turnout wave capable of overcoming the structural partisan advantage before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$34,399Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mike Simpson’s commanding position in Idaho’s 2nd Congressional District stems from the seat’s consistent Republican lean (R+13 PVI), his nearly three-decade incumbency, and decisive victory in the May 2026 Republican primary. The district’s rural and eastern Idaho base has delivered Simpson repeated comfortable margins, while his campaign has raised over $1.1 million compared with Democratic nominee Ellie Gilbreath’s roughly $107,000. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and minimal national spending. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late-cycle event such as a major scandal, health development, or unusually strong Democratic turnout wave capable of overcoming the structural partisan advantage before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,399Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mike Simpson’s commanding position in Idaho’s 2nd Congressional District stems from the seat’s consistent Republican lean (R+13 PVI), his nearly three-decade incumbency, and decisive victory in the May 2026 Republican primary. The district’s rural and eastern Idaho base has delivered Simpson repeated comfortable margins, while his campaign has raised over $1.1 million compared with Democratic nominee Ellie Gilbreath’s roughly $107,000. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and minimal national spending. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen late-cycle event such as a major scandal, health development, or unusually strong Democratic turnout wave capable of overcoming the structural partisan advantage before the November 3 general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions