Mary Miller’s commanding position in the Illinois 15th congressional district reflects the seat’s entrenched Republican tilt, with a Partisan Voter Index around R+20 and a 22.5-point Trump margin in 2024. As incumbent, Miller secured her March 2026 primary with 73.6% and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, holding roughly $800,000 in cash on hand against challenger Jennifer Todd’s limited resources. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at 95.9% for Miller incorporates these structural advantages alongside the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments that would narrow the gap. A national Democratic surge exceeding historical midterm patterns or an unforeseen personal or legal development involving the incumbent represent the primary scenarios that could alter probabilities before Election Day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da Câmara IL-15
Vencedor da eleição da Câmara IL-15
$44,164 Vol.
$44,164 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Mary Miller (R)
96%
Jennifer Todd (D)
4%
$44,164 Vol.
$44,164 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Mary Miller (R)
$19,743 Vol.
96%
Jennifer Todd (D)
$24,421 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mary Miller’s commanding position in the Illinois 15th congressional district reflects the seat’s entrenched Republican tilt, with a Partisan Voter Index around R+20 and a 22.5-point Trump margin in 2024. As incumbent, Miller secured her March 2026 primary with 73.6% and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, holding roughly $800,000 in cash on hand against challenger Jennifer Todd’s limited resources. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at 95.9% for Miller incorporates these structural advantages alongside the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments that would narrow the gap. A national Democratic surge exceeding historical midterm patterns or an unforeseen personal or legal development involving the incumbent represent the primary scenarios that could alter probabilities before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$44,164Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Mary Miller’s commanding position in the Illinois 15th congressional district reflects the seat’s entrenched Republican tilt, with a Partisan Voter Index around R+20 and a 22.5-point Trump margin in 2024. As incumbent, Miller secured her March 2026 primary with 73.6% and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, holding roughly $800,000 in cash on hand against challenger Jennifer Todd’s limited resources. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at 95.9% for Miller incorporates these structural advantages alongside the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments that would narrow the gap. A national Democratic surge exceeding historical midterm patterns or an unforeseen personal or legal development involving the incumbent represent the primary scenarios that could alter probabilities before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$44,164Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mary Miller’s commanding position in the Illinois 15th congressional district reflects the seat’s entrenched Republican tilt, with a Partisan Voter Index around R+20 and a 22.5-point Trump margin in 2024. As incumbent, Miller secured her March 2026 primary with 73.6% and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, holding roughly $800,000 in cash on hand against challenger Jennifer Todd’s limited resources. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at 95.9% for Miller incorporates these structural advantages alongside the absence of recent polling shifts or major campaign developments that would narrow the gap. A national Democratic surge exceeding historical midterm patterns or an unforeseen personal or legal development involving the incumbent represent the primary scenarios that could alter probabilities before Election Day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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