Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the IL-16 House race due to the district’s R+11 partisan voting index, his long incumbency, and strong name recognition in rural northern Illinois. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. LaHood secured his party’s nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $3 million raised compared to Democratic nominee Paul Nolley’s roughly $237,000. Recent campaign differences have centered on economic policy and a war powers vote related to Iran, yet these have not altered the underlying structural advantages. Trader consensus at 93.5% reflects these factors. A Democratic victory would require a significant national midterm wave, a major late-cycle scandal or health event affecting LaHood, or exceptionally high Democratic turnout that overcomes the district’s consistent partisan tilt.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da Câmara IL-16
Vencedor da eleição da Câmara IL-16
$38,992 Vol.
$38,992 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Darin LaHood (R)
94%
Paul Nolley (D)
7%
$38,992 Vol.
$38,992 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Darin LaHood (R)
$15,407 Vol.
94%
Paul Nolley (D)
$23,585 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the IL-16 House race due to the district’s R+11 partisan voting index, his long incumbency, and strong name recognition in rural northern Illinois. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. LaHood secured his party’s nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $3 million raised compared to Democratic nominee Paul Nolley’s roughly $237,000. Recent campaign differences have centered on economic policy and a war powers vote related to Iran, yet these have not altered the underlying structural advantages. Trader consensus at 93.5% reflects these factors. A Democratic victory would require a significant national midterm wave, a major late-cycle scandal or health event affecting LaHood, or exceptionally high Democratic turnout that overcomes the district’s consistent partisan tilt.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$38,992Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the IL-16 House race due to the district’s R+11 partisan voting index, his long incumbency, and strong name recognition in rural northern Illinois. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. LaHood secured his party’s nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $3 million raised compared to Democratic nominee Paul Nolley’s roughly $237,000. Recent campaign differences have centered on economic policy and a war powers vote related to Iran, yet these have not altered the underlying structural advantages. Trader consensus at 93.5% reflects these factors. A Democratic victory would require a significant national midterm wave, a major late-cycle scandal or health event affecting LaHood, or exceptionally high Democratic turnout that overcomes the district’s consistent partisan tilt.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$38,992Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Darin LaHood holds a commanding position in the IL-16 House race due to the district’s R+11 partisan voting index, his long incumbency, and strong name recognition in rural northern Illinois. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. LaHood secured his party’s nomination without opposition in the March 2026 primary and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, with over $3 million raised compared to Democratic nominee Paul Nolley’s roughly $237,000. Recent campaign differences have centered on economic policy and a war powers vote related to Iran, yet these have not altered the underlying structural advantages. Trader consensus at 93.5% reflects these factors. A Democratic victory would require a significant national midterm wave, a major late-cycle scandal or health event affecting LaHood, or exceptionally high Democratic turnout that overcomes the district’s consistent partisan tilt.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions