Frederick Haynes III secured the Democratic nomination for the open Texas 30th congressional district after incumbent Jasmine Crockett pursued a Senate bid, winning the March 2026 primary by a wide margin with endorsements from Crockett and organized labor groups. The district's strong Democratic lean, reinforced by prior election results and redistricting patterns, underpins trader consensus around Haynes' commanding lead. His substantial fundraising edge—over $420,000 raised versus Everett Jackson's roughly $17,000—further solidifies positioning ahead of the November 3 general election. Jackson advanced through the Republican primary runoff but faces structural headwinds typical of the district. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-cycle developments such as candidate health events, unforeseen scandals, or national political shifts altering turnout, though historical base rates for similar open Democratic seats suggest limited realistic paths to reversal.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTX-30 House Election Winner
TX-30 House Election Winner
$48,309 Vol.
$48,309 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Frederick Haynes III (D)
96%
Everett Jackson (R)
3%
$48,309 Vol.
$48,309 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Frederick Haynes III (D)
$5,583 Vol.
96%
Everett Jackson (R)
$42,726 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Frederick Haynes III secured the Democratic nomination for the open Texas 30th congressional district after incumbent Jasmine Crockett pursued a Senate bid, winning the March 2026 primary by a wide margin with endorsements from Crockett and organized labor groups. The district's strong Democratic lean, reinforced by prior election results and redistricting patterns, underpins trader consensus around Haynes' commanding lead. His substantial fundraising edge—over $420,000 raised versus Everett Jackson's roughly $17,000—further solidifies positioning ahead of the November 3 general election. Jackson advanced through the Republican primary runoff but faces structural headwinds typical of the district. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-cycle developments such as candidate health events, unforeseen scandals, or national political shifts altering turnout, though historical base rates for similar open Democratic seats suggest limited realistic paths to reversal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$48,309Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Frederick Haynes III secured the Democratic nomination for the open Texas 30th congressional district after incumbent Jasmine Crockett pursued a Senate bid, winning the March 2026 primary by a wide margin with endorsements from Crockett and organized labor groups. The district's strong Democratic lean, reinforced by prior election results and redistricting patterns, underpins trader consensus around Haynes' commanding lead. His substantial fundraising edge—over $420,000 raised versus Everett Jackson's roughly $17,000—further solidifies positioning ahead of the November 3 general election. Jackson advanced through the Republican primary runoff but faces structural headwinds typical of the district. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-cycle developments such as candidate health events, unforeseen scandals, or national political shifts altering turnout, though historical base rates for similar open Democratic seats suggest limited realistic paths to reversal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$48,309Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Frederick Haynes III secured the Democratic nomination for the open Texas 30th congressional district after incumbent Jasmine Crockett pursued a Senate bid, winning the March 2026 primary by a wide margin with endorsements from Crockett and organized labor groups. The district's strong Democratic lean, reinforced by prior election results and redistricting patterns, underpins trader consensus around Haynes' commanding lead. His substantial fundraising edge—over $420,000 raised versus Everett Jackson's roughly $17,000—further solidifies positioning ahead of the November 3 general election. Jackson advanced through the Republican primary runoff but faces structural headwinds typical of the district. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-cycle developments such as candidate health events, unforeseen scandals, or national political shifts altering turnout, though historical base rates for similar open Democratic seats suggest limited realistic paths to reversal.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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