Recent monthly U.S. goods-and-services deficits have fluctuated around $70–90 billion, with July 2026 widening to $88.6 billion after June’s $73.3 billion narrowing, while year-to-date totals through mid-2026 show a roughly 30 percent decline from 2025 levels amid reversal of prior-year front-loading. Tariff adjustments, including the February 2026 Supreme Court invalidation of certain IEEPA duties, have lowered the effective rate and supported import normalization, though AI-driven capital goods imports and resilient domestic demand continue to exert upward pressure. Faster nominal export growth relative to imports, alongside dollar depreciation signals and subdued global demand, underpin trader positioning around the 700–900 billion range. Key swing factors for the remainder of 2026 include H2 import trends, export momentum, and any further policy shifts ahead of the February 2027 BEA release.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$24,106 Vol.
$24,106 Vol.
27 fev 2027
<500B
4%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
10%
700–800 bilhões
37%
800–900B
42%
900B–1T
14%
1T–1,1T
6%
1,1T+
5%
$24,106 Vol.
$24,106 Vol.
27 fev 2027
<500B
$16,854 Vol.
4%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
6%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
10%
700–800 bilhões
$670 Vol.
37%
800–900B
$1,529 Vol.
42%
900B–1T
$1,469 Vol.
14%
1T–1,1T
$1,468 Vol.
6%
1,1T+
$1,119 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods-and-services deficits have fluctuated around $70–90 billion, with July 2026 widening to $88.6 billion after June’s $73.3 billion narrowing, while year-to-date totals through mid-2026 show a roughly 30 percent decline from 2025 levels amid reversal of prior-year front-loading. Tariff adjustments, including the February 2026 Supreme Court invalidation of certain IEEPA duties, have lowered the effective rate and supported import normalization, though AI-driven capital goods imports and resilient domestic demand continue to exert upward pressure. Faster nominal export growth relative to imports, alongside dollar depreciation signals and subdued global demand, underpin trader positioning around the 700–900 billion range. Key swing factors for the remainder of 2026 include H2 import trends, export momentum, and any further policy shifts ahead of the February 2027 BEA release.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,106Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods-and-services deficits have fluctuated around $70–90 billion, with July 2026 widening to $88.6 billion after June’s $73.3 billion narrowing, while year-to-date totals through mid-2026 show a roughly 30 percent decline from 2025 levels amid reversal of prior-year front-loading. Tariff adjustments, including the February 2026 Supreme Court invalidation of certain IEEPA duties, have lowered the effective rate and supported import normalization, though AI-driven capital goods imports and resilient domestic demand continue to exert upward pressure. Faster nominal export growth relative to imports, alongside dollar depreciation signals and subdued global demand, underpin trader positioning around the 700–900 billion range. Key swing factors for the remainder of 2026 include H2 import trends, export momentum, and any further policy shifts ahead of the February 2027 BEA release.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,106Data de Término
28 fev 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods-and-services deficits have fluctuated around $70–90 billion, with July 2026 widening to $88.6 billion after June’s $73.3 billion narrowing, while year-to-date totals through mid-2026 show a roughly 30 percent decline from 2025 levels amid reversal of prior-year front-loading. Tariff adjustments, including the February 2026 Supreme Court invalidation of certain IEEPA duties, have lowered the effective rate and supported import normalization, though AI-driven capital goods imports and resilient domestic demand continue to exert upward pressure. Faster nominal export growth relative to imports, alongside dollar depreciation signals and subdued global demand, underpin trader positioning around the 700–900 billion range. Key swing factors for the remainder of 2026 include H2 import trends, export momentum, and any further policy shifts ahead of the February 2027 BEA release.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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