The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California’s 4th congressional district advanced two Democrats—longtime incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones—after Thompson captured roughly 41% and Jones 22%, ahead of the leading Republican at about 21%. This outcome, combined with the district’s Solid Democratic rating from forecasters such as Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, produces the market’s 95.7% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Thompson’s consistent double-digit general-election margins in prior cycles, substantial cash reserves, and institutional endorsements reinforce the partisan baseline. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic nominees withdrawing or a late-breaking scandal severe enough to suppress Democratic turnout entirely before November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$13,721 Объем
$13,721 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
96%
Республиканская партия
3%
$13,721 Объем
$13,721 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$5,915 Объем
96%
Республиканская партия
$7,806 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California’s 4th congressional district advanced two Democrats—longtime incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones—after Thompson captured roughly 41% and Jones 22%, ahead of the leading Republican at about 21%. This outcome, combined with the district’s Solid Democratic rating from forecasters such as Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, produces the market’s 95.7% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Thompson’s consistent double-digit general-election margins in prior cycles, substantial cash reserves, and institutional endorsements reinforce the partisan baseline. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic nominees withdrawing or a late-breaking scandal severe enough to suppress Democratic turnout entirely before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Объем
$13,721Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California’s 4th congressional district advanced two Democrats—longtime incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones—after Thompson captured roughly 41% and Jones 22%, ahead of the leading Republican at about 21%. This outcome, combined with the district’s Solid Democratic rating from forecasters such as Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, produces the market’s 95.7% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Thompson’s consistent double-digit general-election margins in prior cycles, substantial cash reserves, and institutional endorsements reinforce the partisan baseline. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic nominees withdrawing or a late-breaking scandal severe enough to suppress Democratic turnout entirely before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$13,721Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...The June 2, 2026, top-two primary in California’s 4th congressional district advanced two Democrats—longtime incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones—after Thompson captured roughly 41% and Jones 22%, ahead of the leading Republican at about 21%. This outcome, combined with the district’s Solid Democratic rating from forecasters such as Cook and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, produces the market’s 95.7% implied probability for the Democratic Party. Thompson’s consistent double-digit general-election margins in prior cycles, substantial cash reserves, and institutional endorsements reinforce the partisan baseline. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented reversal, such as both Democratic nominees withdrawing or a late-breaking scandal severe enough to suppress Democratic turnout entirely before November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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