Redistricting under Proposition 50 has reshaped California's 3rd congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat, removing prior Republican strongholds and incorporating more favorable areas around Sacramento. Incumbent Ami Bera advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with the highest share and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, while Republican Robb Tucker faces structural headwinds in a district where recent presidential results favored Democrats by roughly ten points. Forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Late developments such as major scandals, health events for the frontrunner, or a sharp national shift could still alter the November general election outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-03 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-03 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$43,504 Объем
$43,504 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Ами Бера (Д)
95%
Робб Такер (Р)
3%
$43,504 Объем
$43,504 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Ами Бера (Д)
$25,885 Объем
95%
Робб Такер (Р)
$17,619 Объем
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 has reshaped California's 3rd congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat, removing prior Republican strongholds and incorporating more favorable areas around Sacramento. Incumbent Ami Bera advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with the highest share and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, while Republican Robb Tucker faces structural headwinds in a district where recent presidential results favored Democrats by roughly ten points. Forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Late developments such as major scandals, health events for the frontrunner, or a sharp national shift could still alter the November general election outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Объем
$43,504Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 has reshaped California's 3rd congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat, removing prior Republican strongholds and incorporating more favorable areas around Sacramento. Incumbent Ami Bera advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with the highest share and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, while Republican Robb Tucker faces structural headwinds in a district where recent presidential results favored Democrats by roughly ten points. Forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Late developments such as major scandals, health events for the frontrunner, or a sharp national shift could still alter the November general election outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$43,504Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 has reshaped California's 3rd congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat, removing prior Republican strongholds and incorporating more favorable areas around Sacramento. Incumbent Ami Bera advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with the highest share and maintains a substantial fundraising edge, while Republican Robb Tucker faces structural headwinds in a district where recent presidential results favored Democrats by roughly ten points. Forecasters rate the contest Safe or Solid Democratic, aligning with trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Late developments such as major scandals, health events for the frontrunner, or a sharp national shift could still alter the November general election outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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