Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding position in California's 23rd congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election. The district's partisan lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 15.5-point 2024 presidential margin and an R+9 Cook Partisan Voter Index, combined with Obernolte's 57% finish in the June 2 top-two primary, underpins trader expectations. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Obernolte's substantial fundraising lead and established incumbency further reinforce this positioning. Tessa Lynn Hodge, the leading Democratic primary finisher, faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently favored Republicans in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national political shift or unforeseen candidate-specific events could narrow the gap, though current fundamentals limit realistic paths for an upset.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-23 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-23 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$61,465 Объем
$61,465 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Джей Обернолте (Р)
93%
Тесса Линн Ходж (Д)
6%
$61,465 Объем
$61,465 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Джей Обернолте (Р)
$29,034 Объем
93%
Тесса Линн Ходж (Д)
$32,431 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding position in California's 23rd congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election. The district's partisan lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 15.5-point 2024 presidential margin and an R+9 Cook Partisan Voter Index, combined with Obernolte's 57% finish in the June 2 top-two primary, underpins trader expectations. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Obernolte's substantial fundraising lead and established incumbency further reinforce this positioning. Tessa Lynn Hodge, the leading Democratic primary finisher, faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently favored Republicans in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national political shift or unforeseen candidate-specific events could narrow the gap, though current fundamentals limit realistic paths for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Объем
$61,465Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding position in California's 23rd congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election. The district's partisan lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 15.5-point 2024 presidential margin and an R+9 Cook Partisan Voter Index, combined with Obernolte's 57% finish in the June 2 top-two primary, underpins trader expectations. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Obernolte's substantial fundraising lead and established incumbency further reinforce this positioning. Tessa Lynn Hodge, the leading Democratic primary finisher, faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently favored Republicans in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national political shift or unforeseen candidate-specific events could narrow the gap, though current fundamentals limit realistic paths for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$61,465Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding position in California's 23rd congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election. The district's partisan lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 15.5-point 2024 presidential margin and an R+9 Cook Partisan Voter Index, combined with Obernolte's 57% finish in the June 2 top-two primary, underpins trader expectations. Multiple forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. Obernolte's substantial fundraising lead and established incumbency further reinforce this positioning. Tessa Lynn Hodge, the leading Democratic primary finisher, faces structural headwinds in a district that has consistently favored Republicans in recent cycles. Late developments such as a national political shift or unforeseen candidate-specific events could narrow the gap, though current fundamentals limit realistic paths for an upset.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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