The Illinois 5th Congressional District’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for incumbent Mike Quigley, anchors trader consensus on his 95% probability of victory. Quigley secured renomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65% of the vote and maintains a substantial fundraising edge heading into the November 3 general election against Republican Tommy Hanson, who won his primary but has historically trailed by 30-plus points in the district. Race ratings from major forecasters classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome in the final weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоIL-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
IL-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$25,272 Объем
$25,272 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Майк Куигли (Д)
95%
Томми Хэнсон (Р)
5%
$25,272 Объем
$25,272 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Майк Куигли (Д)
$8,976 Объем
95%
Томми Хэнсон (Р)
$16,296 Объем
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 5th Congressional District’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for incumbent Mike Quigley, anchors trader consensus on his 95% probability of victory. Quigley secured renomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65% of the vote and maintains a substantial fundraising edge heading into the November 3 general election against Republican Tommy Hanson, who won his primary but has historically trailed by 30-plus points in the district. Race ratings from major forecasters classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Объем
$25,272Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 5th Congressional District’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for incumbent Mike Quigley, anchors trader consensus on his 95% probability of victory. Quigley secured renomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65% of the vote and maintains a substantial fundraising edge heading into the November 3 general election against Republican Tommy Hanson, who won his primary but has historically trailed by 30-plus points in the district. Race ratings from major forecasters classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$25,272Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 5th Congressional District’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent double-digit margins for incumbent Mike Quigley, anchors trader consensus on his 95% probability of victory. Quigley secured renomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65% of the vote and maintains a substantial fundraising edge heading into the November 3 general election against Republican Tommy Hanson, who won his primary but has historically trailed by 30-plus points in the district. Race ratings from major forecasters classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Republican wave would be required to meaningfully alter the outcome in the final weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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