Recent polling averages show Democratic challenger Rebecca Bennett leading Republican incumbent Thomas Kean Jr. by narrow but consistent margins in New Jersey’s 7th congressional district, a seat that has flipped parties in each of the past two midterms. Bennett’s advantages stem from strong primary performance as a Navy veteran, superior small-dollar fundraising, and a September 17 endorsement flip by the New Jersey firefighters union, which had backed Kean in prior cycles. Kean’s months-long absence from Congress earlier in 2026 due to health issues damaged his favorability and campaign momentum, even after his return. National midterm dynamics, including voter concerns over costs and foreign policy, have further tilted the race toward the Democratic nominee according to multiple nonpartisan ratings. These factors underpin the current trader consensus favoring Bennett.