Steven Horsford's incumbency in Nevada's 4th Congressional District, rated D+2 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring his reelection at 90.5% implied probability. The incumbent Democrat won the 2024 general by roughly eight points in a district where Kamala Harris prevailed narrowly, and he advanced unopposed through the June 2026 primary while raising substantially more than Republican nominee Cody Whipple, who secured his party's nomination after defeating two challengers. Whipple's recent rural outreach in counties such as Nye has not shifted the structural dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments including national economic conditions, turnout shifts among working-class and Latino voters, or unexpected campaign events could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in similar districts limit realistic paths to an upset.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNV-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
NV-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$10,562 Объем
$10,562 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Стивен Хорсфорд (Д)
92%
Коди Уиппл (Р)
4%
$10,562 Объем
$10,562 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Стивен Хорсфорд (Д)
$5,257 Объем
92%
Коди Уиппл (Р)
$5,305 Объем
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steven Horsford's incumbency in Nevada's 4th Congressional District, rated D+2 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring his reelection at 90.5% implied probability. The incumbent Democrat won the 2024 general by roughly eight points in a district where Kamala Harris prevailed narrowly, and he advanced unopposed through the June 2026 primary while raising substantially more than Republican nominee Cody Whipple, who secured his party's nomination after defeating two challengers. Whipple's recent rural outreach in counties such as Nye has not shifted the structural dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments including national economic conditions, turnout shifts among working-class and Latino voters, or unexpected campaign events could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in similar districts limit realistic paths to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
Объем
$10,562Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steven Horsford's incumbency in Nevada's 4th Congressional District, rated D+2 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring his reelection at 90.5% implied probability. The incumbent Democrat won the 2024 general by roughly eight points in a district where Kamala Harris prevailed narrowly, and he advanced unopposed through the June 2026 primary while raising substantially more than Republican nominee Cody Whipple, who secured his party's nomination after defeating two challengers. Whipple's recent rural outreach in counties such as Nye has not shifted the structural dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments including national economic conditions, turnout shifts among working-class and Latino voters, or unexpected campaign events could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in similar districts limit realistic paths to an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$10,562Дата окончания
4 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Steven Horsford's incumbency in Nevada's 4th Congressional District, rated D+2 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring his reelection at 90.5% implied probability. The incumbent Democrat won the 2024 general by roughly eight points in a district where Kamala Harris prevailed narrowly, and he advanced unopposed through the June 2026 primary while raising substantially more than Republican nominee Cody Whipple, who secured his party's nomination after defeating two challengers. Whipple's recent rural outreach in counties such as Nye has not shifted the structural dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments including national economic conditions, turnout shifts among working-class and Latino voters, or unexpected campaign events could narrow the margin, though historical patterns in similar districts limit realistic paths to an upset.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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