Recent polling in Sergipe shows a fragmented Senate race for the second seat, with Delegado André David, André Moura, Rogério Carvalho, and Eduardo Amorim clustered in the low-to-mid teens amid high undecided and blank/null shares. Voters cast two ballots for the two available seats, which sustains volatility as preferences shift between first- and second-choice options. Late August and early September surveys from institutes such as Quaest, INOR, and Real Time Big Data confirm no candidate has consolidated a clear edge for second place, keeping implied probabilities tightly bunched. Campaign alliances, regional turnout patterns, and any late shifts in the parallel gubernatorial contest could still reorder the lower rankings before the October 4 vote.