The competitive Texas Senate contest between Ken Paxton and James Talarico, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by forecasters with recent polls showing margins under three points, sustains tight trader probabilities clustered between the 9.6M–10.8M vote ranges. Record Democratic primary participation, elevated Republican runoff turnout, and both campaigns' focus on early voting outreach to suburban independents, Hispanic voters, and younger demographics have elevated expectations above typical midterm levels near 8–9 million. High ad spending and mobilization efforts reinforce the clustering, while potential separation hinges on late polling shifts, differential base enthusiasm, or weather on November 3. Historical patterns from 2018 and 2022 midterms underscore how close races can lift overall participation without guaranteeing crossover or base turnout gains.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено9,6M–10M 32%
10М–10,4М 25%
10,4–10,8 млн 25%
9,2–9,6 млн 8%
<8М
5%
8М-8,4М
4%
8,4М-8,8М
5%
8,8M–9,2M
4%
9,2–9,6 млн
8%
9,6M–10M
32%
10М–10,4М
25%
10,4–10,8 млн
25%
10,8М–11,2М
5%
11,2 млн+
8%
9,6M–10M 32%
10М–10,4М 25%
10,4–10,8 млн 25%
9,2–9,6 млн 8%
<8М
5%
8М-8,4М
4%
8,4М-8,8М
5%
8,8M–9,2M
4%
9,2–9,6 млн
8%
9,6M–10M
32%
10М–10,4М
25%
10,4–10,8 млн
25%
10,8М–11,2М
5%
11,2 млн+
8%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The competitive Texas Senate contest between Ken Paxton and James Talarico, rated a toss-up or lean Republican by forecasters with recent polls showing margins under three points, sustains tight trader probabilities clustered between the 9.6M–10.8M vote ranges. Record Democratic primary participation, elevated Republican runoff turnout, and both campaigns' focus on early voting outreach to suburban independents, Hispanic voters, and younger demographics have elevated expectations above typical midterm levels near 8–9 million. High ad spending and mobilization efforts reinforce the clustering, while potential separation hinges on late polling shifts, differential base enthusiasm, or weather on November 3. Historical patterns from 2018 and 2022 midterms underscore how close races can lift overall participation without guaranteeing crossover or base turnout gains.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
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