Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election pits Republican incumbent Ashley Moody against Democrat Angie Nixon in a state that has trended strongly Republican, with Trump carrying it by double digits in 2024. Trader consensus centers on the 7.75M–8.25M vote range because total turnout will likely reflect a typical midterm participation rate among roughly 13.5 million registered voters, where Republicans hold a sizable registration edge and no-party-affiliation voters often decide the final count. Recent August primaries showed Republicans leading in raw ballots cast despite Democrats posting higher rates relative to their smaller registration base, while early and mail voting patterns plus get-out-the-vote intensity among independents and core supporters remain the main variables that could push totals higher or lower within the narrow band.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено8М-8,25М 47%
7,75–8 млн 24.8%
8,75 млн – 9 млн 15%
9М+ 11%
<7М
1%
7М–7,25М
1%
7,25M–7,5M
6%
7,5M-7,75M
6%
7,75–8 млн
25%
8М-8,25М
47%
8,25М-8,5М
9%
8,5M-8,75M
4%
8,75 млн – 9 млн
15%
9М+
11%
8М-8,25М 47%
7,75–8 млн 24.8%
8,75 млн – 9 млн 15%
9М+ 11%
<7М
1%
7М–7,25М
1%
7,25M–7,5M
6%
7,5M-7,75M
6%
7,75–8 млн
25%
8М-8,25М
47%
8,25М-8,5М
9%
8,5M-8,75M
4%
8,75 млн – 9 млн
15%
9М+
11%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 18, 2026, 10:06 AM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Florida's 2026 U.S. Senate special election pits Republican incumbent Ashley Moody against Democrat Angie Nixon in a state that has trended strongly Republican, with Trump carrying it by double digits in 2024. Trader consensus centers on the 7.75M–8.25M vote range because total turnout will likely reflect a typical midterm participation rate among roughly 13.5 million registered voters, where Republicans hold a sizable registration edge and no-party-affiliation voters often decide the final count. Recent August primaries showed Republicans leading in raw ballots cast despite Democrats posting higher rates relative to their smaller registration base, while early and mail voting patterns plus get-out-the-vote intensity among independents and core supporters remain the main variables that could push totals higher or lower within the narrow band.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
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