The closely matched probabilities across turnout ranges centered on 2.65M–2.95M reflect trader assessments of a low-competition midterm Senate race in a safely Democratic state. Incumbent Ed Markey secured the Democratic nomination over Seth Moulton in the September 1 primary with limited statewide enthusiasm, consistent with Secretary of State William Galvin’s assessment that the contest would not generate elevated participation. Historical patterns show midterm drop-off from presidential-year levels near 3.5 million votes, with 2022 producing roughly 2.51 million ballots. Early and mail voting volumes, along with typical unenrolled voter abstention, continue to anchor expectations near recent midterm benchmarks while leaving room for modest shifts based on get-out-the-vote efforts or national conditions ahead of November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено2,8М-2,95М 37%
2,65M-2,8M 32%
2,5М–2,65М 18%
2,95M-3,1M 16%
<2,2 млн
6%
2,2М–2,35М
8%
2,35М–2,5М
9%
2,5М–2,65М
11%
2,65M-2,8M
32%
2,8М-2,95М
37%
2,95M-3,1M
16%
3,1 млн+
10%
2,8М-2,95М 37%
2,65M-2,8M 32%
2,5М–2,65М 18%
2,95M-3,1M 16%
<2,2 млн
6%
2,2М–2,35М
8%
2,35М–2,5М
9%
2,5М–2,65М
11%
2,65M-2,8M
32%
2,8М-2,95М
37%
2,95M-3,1M
16%
3,1 млн+
10%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Massachusetts, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 18, 2026, 10:33 AM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Massachusetts, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities across turnout ranges centered on 2.65M–2.95M reflect trader assessments of a low-competition midterm Senate race in a safely Democratic state. Incumbent Ed Markey secured the Democratic nomination over Seth Moulton in the September 1 primary with limited statewide enthusiasm, consistent with Secretary of State William Galvin’s assessment that the contest would not generate elevated participation. Historical patterns show midterm drop-off from presidential-year levels near 3.5 million votes, with 2022 producing roughly 2.51 million ballots. Early and mail voting volumes, along with typical unenrolled voter abstention, continue to anchor expectations near recent midterm benchmarks while leaving room for modest shifts based on get-out-the-vote efforts or national conditions ahead of November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Будет ли общее количество поданных голосов на промежуточных выборах 2026 года за сенатора от Нью-Гэмпшира в диапазоне от 650 000 до 700 000?
Будет ли количество отданных голосов на промежуточных выборах 2026 года за сенатора от штата Мэн менее 600 000?
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 4,250,000 and 4,500,000?
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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