The competitiveness of the 2026 Kansas U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Roger Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton has elevated expectations for above-average midterm turnout. Recent Emerson College and other polling shows the contest tightening into a near dead heat or slight Hamilton edge among likely voters, drawing independent support and national attention that typically boosts participation in a state where Republicans hold a structural advantage. With roughly 1.88 million registered voters and historical general election totals ranging from about 1.01 million in 2022 to 1.34 million in 2024, trader consensus centers on the 1.1M–1.2M bucket as the most probable outcome. The August primary’s second-highest turnout on record further signals sustained voter engagement ahead of the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено1,1М-1,2М 47%
1М–1,1М 28%
900К–1М 16%
1,2 млн+ 9%
<800 тыс.
<1%
800К-900К
4%
900К–1М
16%
1М–1,1М
28%
1,1М-1,2М
47%
1,2 млн+
9%
1,1М-1,2М 47%
1М–1,1М 28%
900К–1М 16%
1,2 млн+ 9%
<800 тыс.
<1%
800К-900К
4%
900К–1М
16%
1М–1,1М
28%
1,1М-1,2М
47%
1,2 млн+
9%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The competitiveness of the 2026 Kansas U.S. Senate race between incumbent Republican Roger Marshall and Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton has elevated expectations for above-average midterm turnout. Recent Emerson College and other polling shows the contest tightening into a near dead heat or slight Hamilton edge among likely voters, drawing independent support and national attention that typically boosts participation in a state where Republicans hold a structural advantage. With roughly 1.88 million registered voters and historical general election totals ranging from about 1.01 million in 2022 to 1.34 million in 2024, trader consensus centers on the 1.1M–1.2M bucket as the most probable outcome. The August primary’s second-highest turnout on record further signals sustained voter engagement ahead of the November 3 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
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