Congress has repeatedly demonstrated willingness to raise or suspend the debt ceiling through reconciliation packages or continuing resolutions before extraordinary measures expire, as seen with the 2025 increase to $41.1 trillion. Projections place the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of Treasury cash management tools, pushing any potential X-date into 2028. This timeline, combined with the dollar’s reserve-currency status and historical avoidance of outright default, underpins the 96.5% trader consensus against a default by the end of 2027. Prolonged partisan standoffs over spending cuts or revenue measures could still compress the window, though such scenarios remain low-probability events in current pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДефолты США по долгам к 2027 году?
Дефолты США по долгам к 2027 году?
Да
4% вероятность
$18,028 Объем
$18,028 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
4% вероятность
$18,028 Объем
$18,028 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress has repeatedly demonstrated willingness to raise or suspend the debt ceiling through reconciliation packages or continuing resolutions before extraordinary measures expire, as seen with the 2025 increase to $41.1 trillion. Projections place the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of Treasury cash management tools, pushing any potential X-date into 2028. This timeline, combined with the dollar’s reserve-currency status and historical avoidance of outright default, underpins the 96.5% trader consensus against a default by the end of 2027. Prolonged partisan standoffs over spending cuts or revenue measures could still compress the window, though such scenarios remain low-probability events in current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Открытие рынка: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Объем
$18,028Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress has repeatedly demonstrated willingness to raise or suspend the debt ceiling through reconciliation packages or continuing resolutions before extraordinary measures expire, as seen with the 2025 increase to $41.1 trillion. Projections place the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of Treasury cash management tools, pushing any potential X-date into 2028. This timeline, combined with the dollar’s reserve-currency status and historical avoidance of outright default, underpins the 96.5% trader consensus against a default by the end of 2027. Prolonged partisan standoffs over spending cuts or revenue measures could still compress the window, though such scenarios remain low-probability events in current pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Объем
$18,028Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Congress has repeatedly demonstrated willingness to raise or suspend the debt ceiling through reconciliation packages or continuing resolutions before extraordinary measures expire, as seen with the 2025 increase to $41.1 trillion. Projections place the next statutory limit contact in spring or summer 2027, followed by six to nine months of Treasury cash management tools, pushing any potential X-date into 2028. This timeline, combined with the dollar’s reserve-currency status and historical avoidance of outright default, underpins the 96.5% trader consensus against a default by the end of 2027. Prolonged partisan standoffs over spending cuts or revenue measures could still compress the window, though such scenarios remain low-probability events in current pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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