**Recent White House staff departures, including Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt’s exit at the end of August 2026 and other senior aides amid midterm preparations, have highlighted administration turnover, yet the cabinet of Senate-confirmed department heads has shown greater stability after earlier 2026 changes.** Traders assign “None before 2027” the highest probability at 48% because no major cabinet-level resignations, firings, or confirmed departures have materialized in recent weeks despite broader churn and pre-midterm pressures. Lower probabilities for figures such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Scott Bessent, Susie Wiles, Doug Burgum, and Howard Lutnick reflect limited current public signals or specific catalysts pointing to imminent exits, with historical patterns of second-term cabinet continuity and the absence of new scandals or policy conflicts supporting the market’s emphasis on near-term stability. Upcoming midterms and any related oversight could still influence outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNone before 2027 48.0%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 9.7%
Scott Bessent 9.3%
Doug Burgum 5.7%
$43,360 Объем
$43,360 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
None before 2027
48%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
10%
Scott Bessent
9%
Doug Burgum
6%
Howard Lutnick
5%
Susie Wiles
5%
Russell T. Vought
4%
Mike Waltz
4%
Pete Hegseth
3%
Kelly Loeffler
2%
Sean Duffy
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
Lee Zeldin
2%
Chris Wright
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
Marco Rubio
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Jamieson Greer
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Doug Collins
1%
None before 2027 48.0%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 9.7%
Scott Bessent 9.3%
Doug Burgum 5.7%
$43,360 Объем
$43,360 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
None before 2027
$8,129 Объем
48%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$18,513 Объем
10%
Scott Bessent
$1,904 Объем
9%
Doug Burgum
$804 Объем
6%
Howard Lutnick
$870 Объем
5%
Susie Wiles
$3,362 Объем
5%
Russell T. Vought
$478 Объем
4%
Mike Waltz
$748 Объем
4%
Pete Hegseth
$959 Объем
3%
Kelly Loeffler
$776 Объем
2%
Sean Duffy
$632 Объем
2%
Brooke Rollins
$670 Объем
2%
Lee Zeldin
$636 Объем
2%
Chris Wright
$730 Объем
2%
J.D. Vance
$581 Объем
2%
Marco Rubio
$550 Объем
1%
Scott Turner
$351 Объем
1%
Jamieson Greer
$517 Объем
1%
Linda McMahon
$947 Объем
1%
John Ratcliffe
$544 Объем
1%
Doug Collins
$658 Объем
1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.**Recent White House staff departures, including Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt’s exit at the end of August 2026 and other senior aides amid midterm preparations, have highlighted administration turnover, yet the cabinet of Senate-confirmed department heads has shown greater stability after earlier 2026 changes.**
Traders assign “None before 2027” the highest probability at 48% because no major cabinet-level resignations, firings, or confirmed departures have materialized in recent weeks despite broader churn and pre-midterm pressures. Lower probabilities for figures such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Scott Bessent, Susie Wiles, Doug Burgum, and Howard Lutnick reflect limited current public signals or specific catalysts pointing to imminent exits, with historical patterns of second-term cabinet continuity and the absence of new scandals or policy conflicts supporting the market’s emphasis on near-term stability. Upcoming midterms and any related oversight could still influence outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Открытие рынка: May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Объем
$43,360Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.**Recent White House staff departures, including Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt’s exit at the end of August 2026 and other senior aides amid midterm preparations, have highlighted administration turnover, yet the cabinet of Senate-confirmed department heads has shown greater stability after earlier 2026 changes.**
Traders assign “None before 2027” the highest probability at 48% because no major cabinet-level resignations, firings, or confirmed departures have materialized in recent weeks despite broader churn and pre-midterm pressures. Lower probabilities for figures such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Scott Bessent, Susie Wiles, Doug Burgum, and Howard Lutnick reflect limited current public signals or specific catalysts pointing to imminent exits, with historical patterns of second-term cabinet continuity and the absence of new scandals or policy conflicts supporting the market’s emphasis on near-term stability. Upcoming midterms and any related oversight could still influence outcomes.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Объем
$43,360Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Recent White House staff departures, including Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt’s exit at the end of August 2026 and other senior aides amid midterm preparations, have highlighted administration turnover, yet the cabinet of Senate-confirmed department heads has shown greater stability after earlier 2026 changes.** Traders assign “None before 2027” the highest probability at 48% because no major cabinet-level resignations, firings, or confirmed departures have materialized in recent weeks despite broader churn and pre-midterm pressures. Lower probabilities for figures such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Scott Bessent, Susie Wiles, Doug Burgum, and Howard Lutnick reflect limited current public signals or specific catalysts pointing to imminent exits, with historical patterns of second-term cabinet continuity and the absence of new scandals or policy conflicts supporting the market’s emphasis on near-term stability. Upcoming midterms and any related oversight could still influence outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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