Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 House race due to her narrow 2024 victory in the suburban Long Island swing district, combined with a substantial Democratic registration edge of over 70,000 voters and strong fundraising. Forecasters rate the seat Lean or Tilt Democratic, and the Republican primary winner, Jeanine Driscoll—a local tax receiver focused on affordability and SALT deduction expansion—has not yet narrowed the gap in a race that flipped between parties in recent cycles. Traders price Gillen’s position as the consensus outcome ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as major polling shifts, effective attacks on Gillen’s legislative record, unusually high Republican turnout, or national political changes could still alter the trajectory in this competitive district.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Laura Gillen (D)
93%
Jeanine Driscoll (R)
3%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Laura Gillen (D)
$3,361 ปริมาณ
93%
Jeanine Driscoll (R)
$2,047 ปริมาณ
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 House race due to her narrow 2024 victory in the suburban Long Island swing district, combined with a substantial Democratic registration edge of over 70,000 voters and strong fundraising. Forecasters rate the seat Lean or Tilt Democratic, and the Republican primary winner, Jeanine Driscoll—a local tax receiver focused on affordability and SALT deduction expansion—has not yet narrowed the gap in a race that flipped between parties in recent cycles. Traders price Gillen’s position as the consensus outcome ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as major polling shifts, effective attacks on Gillen’s legislative record, unusually high Republican turnout, or national political changes could still alter the trajectory in this competitive district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,408วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 House race due to her narrow 2024 victory in the suburban Long Island swing district, combined with a substantial Democratic registration edge of over 70,000 voters and strong fundraising. Forecasters rate the seat Lean or Tilt Democratic, and the Republican primary winner, Jeanine Driscoll—a local tax receiver focused on affordability and SALT deduction expansion—has not yet narrowed the gap in a race that flipped between parties in recent cycles. Traders price Gillen’s position as the consensus outcome ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as major polling shifts, effective attacks on Gillen’s legislative record, unusually high Republican turnout, or national political changes could still alter the trajectory in this competitive district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,408วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 4, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 House race due to her narrow 2024 victory in the suburban Long Island swing district, combined with a substantial Democratic registration edge of over 70,000 voters and strong fundraising. Forecasters rate the seat Lean or Tilt Democratic, and the Republican primary winner, Jeanine Driscoll—a local tax receiver focused on affordability and SALT deduction expansion—has not yet narrowed the gap in a race that flipped between parties in recent cycles. Traders price Gillen’s position as the consensus outcome ahead of the November 3 general election. Late developments such as major polling shifts, effective attacks on Gillen’s legislative record, unusually high Republican turnout, or national political changes could still alter the trajectory in this competitive district.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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