No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred anywhere on Earth through late August 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 99.7 percent. USGS data confirm the year’s strongest events reached only 7.8 in the Philippines and 7.7 offshore Indonesia, remaining well below the megaquake threshold on the moment magnitude scale. This outcome aligns with established base rates, as M8+ events average fewer than one per year globally and none have struck in 2026. Ongoing USGS monitoring shows typical aftershock sequences and no accelerating seismic indicators on major subduction zones. While an unforeseen M8+ rupture in the final hours remains theoretically possible, current fault conditions and model consensus render it statistically negligible.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMegaquake by August 31?
Megaquake by August 31?
<1% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 31, 2026
<1% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Aug 31, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred anywhere on Earth through late August 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 99.7 percent. USGS data confirm the year’s strongest events reached only 7.8 in the Philippines and 7.7 offshore Indonesia, remaining well below the megaquake threshold on the moment magnitude scale. This outcome aligns with established base rates, as M8+ events average fewer than one per year globally and none have struck in 2026. Ongoing USGS monitoring shows typical aftershock sequences and no accelerating seismic indicators on major subduction zones. While an unforeseen M8+ rupture in the final hours remains theoretically possible, current fault conditions and model consensus render it statistically negligible.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
Volume
$9,408Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred anywhere on Earth through late August 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 99.7 percent. USGS data confirm the year’s strongest events reached only 7.8 in the Philippines and 7.7 offshore Indonesia, remaining well below the megaquake threshold on the moment magnitude scale. This outcome aligns with established base rates, as M8+ events average fewer than one per year globally and none have struck in 2026. Ongoing USGS monitoring shows typical aftershock sequences and no accelerating seismic indicators on major subduction zones. While an unforeseen M8+ rupture in the final hours remains theoretically possible, current fault conditions and model consensus render it statistically negligible.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$9,408Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 1, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 29, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquake has occurred anywhere on Earth through late August 2026, keeping the market-implied probability of “No” near 99.7 percent. USGS data confirm the year’s strongest events reached only 7.8 in the Philippines and 7.7 offshore Indonesia, remaining well below the megaquake threshold on the moment magnitude scale. This outcome aligns with established base rates, as M8+ events average fewer than one per year globally and none have struck in 2026. Ongoing USGS monitoring shows typical aftershock sequences and no accelerating seismic indicators on major subduction zones. While an unforeseen M8+ rupture in the final hours remains theoretically possible, current fault conditions and model consensus render it statistically negligible.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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