A developing very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 indices near +2.6 °C and multi-model peaks forecast above +3.5 °C by late 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver lifting September global mean temperatures. Official monitoring from NOAA and JMA confirms the event's rapid intensification since spring, adding several tenths of a degree atop the long-term anthropogenic trend. Ensemble forecasts place the monthly anomaly near 1.4–1.5 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, yet internal variability, model spread, and the lag between Pacific warming and peak global response create substantial uncertainty across the narrow resolution bins. Traders appear to weigh the balance between record September warmth and the precise placement within the 1.30–1.49 °C range, with upcoming ECMWF and Copernicus updates likely to sharpen the distribution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateSeptember 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
September 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
1.45–1.49ºC 50%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
49%
1.30–1.34ºC
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
50%
>1.49ºC
50%
1.30–1.34ºC 50%
1.35–1.39ºC 50%
1.40–1.44ºC 50%
1.45–1.49ºC 50%
BAGO
BAGO
Oct 9, 2026
<1.30ºC
$0 Vol.
49%
1.30–1.34ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.35–1.39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.40–1.44ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1.45–1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
>1.49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 indices near +2.6 °C and multi-model peaks forecast above +3.5 °C by late 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver lifting September global mean temperatures. Official monitoring from NOAA and JMA confirms the event's rapid intensification since spring, adding several tenths of a degree atop the long-term anthropogenic trend. Ensemble forecasts place the monthly anomaly near 1.4–1.5 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, yet internal variability, model spread, and the lag between Pacific warming and peak global response create substantial uncertainty across the narrow resolution bins. Traders appear to weigh the balance between record September warmth and the precise placement within the 1.30–1.49 °C range, with upcoming ECMWF and Copernicus updates likely to sharpen the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$0Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 10, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 indices near +2.6 °C and multi-model peaks forecast above +3.5 °C by late 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver lifting September global mean temperatures. Official monitoring from NOAA and JMA confirms the event's rapid intensification since spring, adding several tenths of a degree atop the long-term anthropogenic trend. Ensemble forecasts place the monthly anomaly near 1.4–1.5 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, yet internal variability, model spread, and the lag between Pacific warming and peak global response create substantial uncertainty across the narrow resolution bins. Traders appear to weigh the balance between record September warmth and the precise placement within the 1.30–1.49 °C range, with upcoming ECMWF and Copernicus updates likely to sharpen the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$0Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 10, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETResolution Source
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...A developing very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 indices near +2.6 °C and multi-model peaks forecast above +3.5 °C by late 2026, stands as the dominant near-term driver lifting September global mean temperatures. Official monitoring from NOAA and JMA confirms the event's rapid intensification since spring, adding several tenths of a degree atop the long-term anthropogenic trend. Ensemble forecasts place the monthly anomaly near 1.4–1.5 °C above the 1850–1900 baseline, yet internal variability, model spread, and the lag between Pacific warming and peak global response create substantial uncertainty across the narrow resolution bins. Traders appear to weigh the balance between record September warmth and the precise placement within the 1.30–1.49 °C range, with upcoming ECMWF and Copernicus updates likely to sharpen the distribution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong