Recent Mexico inflation data and Bank of Mexico projections anchor trader sentiment around the 3.5-4.0% range for 2026 annual CPI. Headline inflation eased to 3.12% in July before a modest August rebound to 3.26%, while core measures held near 3.9-4.0%. Banxico's August quarterly report forecasts Q4 2026 headline inflation near 3.5% with convergence to the 3% target delayed until late 2027, citing persistent services prices and upside risks from USMCA trade uncertainty, geopolitical energy pressures, and agricultural volatility. Private-sector median expectations for year-end 2026 inflation sit at 4.0%, reflecting slower disinflation amid subdued 1.5% GDP growth. The closely matched leading bins highlight uncertainty over whether non-core rebounds or core inertia will dominate the full-year outcome.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update3.50% to 3.99% 32.9%
4.00% to 4.49% 26%
3.00% to 3.49% 20.3%
4.50% to 4.99% 9%
$65,979 Vol.
$65,979 Vol.
<2.50%
7%
2.50% to 2.99%
8%
3.00% to 3.49%
20%
3.50% to 3.99%
33%
4.00% to 4.49%
26%
4.50% to 4.99%
9%
5.00% to 5.49%
5%
5.50%+
3%
3.50% to 3.99% 32.9%
4.00% to 4.49% 26%
3.00% to 3.49% 20.3%
4.50% to 4.99% 9%
$65,979 Vol.
$65,979 Vol.
<2.50%
7%
2.50% to 2.99%
8%
3.00% to 3.49%
20%
3.50% to 3.99%
33%
4.00% to 4.49%
26%
4.50% to 4.99%
9%
5.00% to 5.49%
5%
5.50%+
3%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Mexico inflation data and Bank of Mexico projections anchor trader sentiment around the 3.5-4.0% range for 2026 annual CPI. Headline inflation eased to 3.12% in July before a modest August rebound to 3.26%, while core measures held near 3.9-4.0%. Banxico's August quarterly report forecasts Q4 2026 headline inflation near 3.5% with convergence to the 3% target delayed until late 2027, citing persistent services prices and upside risks from USMCA trade uncertainty, geopolitical energy pressures, and agricultural volatility. Private-sector median expectations for year-end 2026 inflation sit at 4.0%, reflecting slower disinflation amid subdued 1.5% GDP growth. The closely matched leading bins highlight uncertainty over whether non-core rebounds or core inertia will dominate the full-year outcome.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update



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