Anthropic holds a strong 77.7% implied probability for second place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by end-September because OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra overtook Claude Fable 5.1 by 35 points in early September community votes, reflecting superior multi-step web-app construction and tool use. Anthropic’s recent Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases remain competitive on related benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench Verified, supporting trader consensus that it trails only OpenAI among frontier labs. Lower odds for OpenAI at second (18.9%) and minimal shares for Moonshot, Alibaba, and others underscore the narrow gap between the top two while highlighting limited recent gains from competitors in live Code Arena evaluations.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateSecond-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of September?
Anthropic 77.8%
OpenAI 19.6%
Alibaba 2.7%
Moonshot 2.5%
$68,735 Vol.
$68,735 Vol.

Anthropic
78%

OpenAI
20%

Alibaba
3%

Moonshot
2%

SpaceXAI
1%

Tencent
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meta
<1%

<1%

ByteDance
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Thinky
<1%

Poolside
<1%

Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 77.8%
OpenAI 19.6%
Alibaba 2.7%
Moonshot 2.5%
$68,735 Vol.
$68,735 Vol.

Anthropic
78%

OpenAI
20%

Alibaba
3%

Moonshot
2%

SpaceXAI
1%

Tencent
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meta
<1%

<1%

ByteDance
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Thinky
<1%

Poolside
<1%

Mistral
<1%
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 24, 2026, 7:45 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a strong 77.7% implied probability for second place on the Code Arena WebDev leaderboard by end-September because OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra overtook Claude Fable 5.1 by 35 points in early September community votes, reflecting superior multi-step web-app construction and tool use. Anthropic’s recent Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases remain competitive on related benchmarks such as Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench Verified, supporting trader consensus that it trails only OpenAI among frontier labs. Lower odds for OpenAI at second (18.9%) and minimal shares for Moonshot, Alibaba, and others underscore the narrow gap between the top two while highlighting limited recent gains from competitors in live Code Arena evaluations.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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