Lula maintains a commanding lead in Sergipe polling for the October 2026 first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state’s longstanding support in Brazil’s Northeast region and consistent government approval ratings near 60 percent. Recent Quaest surveys place him at 53 percent, far ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 19-20 percent, with all other declared candidates below 3 percent. Traders price this dominance at 95.5 percent implied probability, consistent with the incumbent’s structural advantages in the state. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a sharp national economic downturn before election day, unexpected health developments, or a late surge by opposition figures that boosts turnout among undecided voters, though no such shift has materialized in the latest state-level data.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLula 95.5%
Flavio Bolsonaro 2.5%
Clariana Barao 1.4%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$14,049 Обс.
$14,049 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
3%
Clariana Barao
1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Samara
<1%
Lula 95.5%
Flavio Bolsonaro 2.5%
Clariana Barao 1.4%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$14,049 Обс.
$14,049 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$7,367 Обс.
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$647 Обс.
3%
Clariana Barao
$1,103 Обс.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$506 Обс.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$490 Обс.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$512 Обс.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$506 Обс.
<1%
Renan Santos
$490 Обс.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$512 Обс.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$518 Обс.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$498 Обс.
<1%
Zema
$431 Обс.
<1%
Samara
$469 Обс.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Sergipe polling for the October 2026 first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state’s longstanding support in Brazil’s Northeast region and consistent government approval ratings near 60 percent. Recent Quaest surveys place him at 53 percent, far ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 19-20 percent, with all other declared candidates below 3 percent. Traders price this dominance at 95.5 percent implied probability, consistent with the incumbent’s structural advantages in the state. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a sharp national economic downturn before election day, unexpected health developments, or a late surge by opposition figures that boosts turnout among undecided voters, though no such shift has materialized in the latest state-level data.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Обсяг
$14,049Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Sergipe polling for the October 2026 first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state’s longstanding support in Brazil’s Northeast region and consistent government approval ratings near 60 percent. Recent Quaest surveys place him at 53 percent, far ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 19-20 percent, with all other declared candidates below 3 percent. Traders price this dominance at 95.5 percent implied probability, consistent with the incumbent’s structural advantages in the state. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a sharp national economic downturn before election day, unexpected health developments, or a late surge by opposition figures that boosts turnout among undecided voters, though no such shift has materialized in the latest state-level data.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Sergipe, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Sergipe.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Sergipe. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Обсяг
$14,049Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Lula maintains a commanding lead in Sergipe polling for the October 2026 first-round presidential vote, reflecting the state’s longstanding support in Brazil’s Northeast region and consistent government approval ratings near 60 percent. Recent Quaest surveys place him at 53 percent, far ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 19-20 percent, with all other declared candidates below 3 percent. Traders price this dominance at 95.5 percent implied probability, consistent with the incumbent’s structural advantages in the state. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a sharp national economic downturn before election day, unexpected health developments, or a late surge by opposition figures that boosts turnout among undecided voters, though no such shift has materialized in the latest state-level data.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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