Lula leads the Amapá presidential first-round market at 62% implied probability, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%, with other candidates far behind, consistent with recent state polling showing the incumbent at 36% and the PL nominee at 31-33%. The narrow gap reflects Amapá's competitive dynamics in the October 2026 election, where local voter priorities on development, Amazon resources, and alliances with figures like Senate President Davi Alcolumbre influence preferences. National trends favor Lula modestly, yet Amapá surveys indicate Flávio Bolsonaro closing ground through opposition messaging on agriculture and security. Upcoming debates and official campaign broadcasts could shift undecided voters, who remain near 14% in recent data, while eligibility rulings or late alliances may still alter the first-place outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLula 63%
Flavio Bolsonaro 32%
Hertz Dias 1.8%
Pablo Marçal 1.3%
$13,532 Обс.
$13,532 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
63%
Flavio Bolsonaro
32%
Hertz Dias
2%
Pablo Marçal
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Lula 63%
Flavio Bolsonaro 32%
Hertz Dias 1.8%
Pablo Marçal 1.3%
$13,532 Обс.
$13,532 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$3,619 Обс.
63%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$2,617 Обс.
32%
Hertz Dias
$935 Обс.
2%
Pablo Marçal
$1,124 Обс.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$640 Обс.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$627 Обс.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$357 Обс.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$343 Обс.
<1%
Renan Santos
$747 Обс.
<1%
Samara
$624 Обс.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$561 Обс.
<1%
Zema
$641 Обс.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$697 Обс.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads the Amapá presidential first-round market at 62% implied probability, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%, with other candidates far behind, consistent with recent state polling showing the incumbent at 36% and the PL nominee at 31-33%. The narrow gap reflects Amapá's competitive dynamics in the October 2026 election, where local voter priorities on development, Amazon resources, and alliances with figures like Senate President Davi Alcolumbre influence preferences. National trends favor Lula modestly, yet Amapá surveys indicate Flávio Bolsonaro closing ground through opposition messaging on agriculture and security. Upcoming debates and official campaign broadcasts could shift undecided voters, who remain near 14% in recent data, while eligibility rulings or late alliances may still alter the first-place outcome.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Обсяг
$13,532Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads the Amapá presidential first-round market at 62% implied probability, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%, with other candidates far behind, consistent with recent state polling showing the incumbent at 36% and the PL nominee at 31-33%. The narrow gap reflects Amapá's competitive dynamics in the October 2026 election, where local voter priorities on development, Amazon resources, and alliances with figures like Senate President Davi Alcolumbre influence preferences. National trends favor Lula modestly, yet Amapá surveys indicate Flávio Bolsonaro closing ground through opposition messaging on agriculture and security. Upcoming debates and official campaign broadcasts could shift undecided voters, who remain near 14% in recent data, while eligibility rulings or late alliances may still alter the first-place outcome.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Обсяг
$13,532Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Lula leads the Amapá presidential first-round market at 62% implied probability, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%, with other candidates far behind, consistent with recent state polling showing the incumbent at 36% and the PL nominee at 31-33%. The narrow gap reflects Amapá's competitive dynamics in the October 2026 election, where local voter priorities on development, Amazon resources, and alliances with figures like Senate President Davi Alcolumbre influence preferences. National trends favor Lula modestly, yet Amapá surveys indicate Flávio Bolsonaro closing ground through opposition messaging on agriculture and security. Upcoming debates and official campaign broadcasts could shift undecided voters, who remain near 14% in recent data, while eligibility rulings or late alliances may still alter the first-place outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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