**Grok models currently trail on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities, with Grok 4.6 at 42.9% and Grok 4.5 at 42.7% as of late August 2026.** Top entries from Anthropic (Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 near 65%) and others like Meta’s Muse Spark exceed 55–62%, reflecting faster progress from reasoning-focused training, larger scale, and architectural advances at competing labs. xAI’s releases have lifted Grok scores steadily since 2025, but the gap persists on verified, no-tools leaderboards. Trader sentiment for thresholds like 45%+ (favored) versus 55%+ or higher (lower odds) centers on whether upcoming Grok iterations or tool-augmented variants can close this distance before year-end, amid ongoing rapid benchmark gains industry-wide but xAI’s more modest recent verified improvements.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
$63,515 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
45%+
72%
50%+
48%
55%+
36%
60%+
25%
65%+
9%
$63,515 Обс.
45%+
$27,818 Обс.
72%
50%+
$7,075 Обс.
48%
55%+
$14,134 Обс.
36%
60%+
$12,455 Обс.
25%
65%+
$2,034 Обс.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Grok models currently trail on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities, with Grok 4.6 at 42.9% and Grok 4.5 at 42.7% as of late August 2026.** Top entries from Anthropic (Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 near 65%) and others like Meta’s Muse Spark exceed 55–62%, reflecting faster progress from reasoning-focused training, larger scale, and architectural advances at competing labs. xAI’s releases have lifted Grok scores steadily since 2025, but the gap persists on verified, no-tools leaderboards. Trader sentiment for thresholds like 45%+ (favored) versus 55%+ or higher (lower odds) centers on whether upcoming Grok iterations or tool-augmented variants can close this distance before year-end, amid ongoing rapid benchmark gains industry-wide but xAI’s more modest recent verified improvements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Ринок відкрито: Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Обсяг
$63,515Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://agi.safe.ai/Вирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".**Grok models currently trail on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities, with Grok 4.6 at 42.9% and Grok 4.5 at 42.7% as of late August 2026.** Top entries from Anthropic (Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 near 65%) and others like Meta’s Muse Spark exceed 55–62%, reflecting faster progress from reasoning-focused training, larger scale, and architectural advances at competing labs. xAI’s releases have lifted Grok scores steadily since 2025, but the gap persists on verified, no-tools leaderboards. Trader sentiment for thresholds like 45%+ (favored) versus 55%+ or higher (lower odds) centers on whether upcoming Grok iterations or tool-augmented variants can close this distance before year-end, amid ongoing rapid benchmark gains industry-wide but xAI’s more modest recent verified improvements.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Обсяг
$63,515Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 23, 2026, 6:46 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://agi.safe.ai/Вирішувач
0x65070BE91...**Grok models currently trail on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert-authored benchmark testing graduate-level knowledge and multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities, with Grok 4.6 at 42.9% and Grok 4.5 at 42.7% as of late August 2026.** Top entries from Anthropic (Claude Opus 5 and Mythos 5 near 65%) and others like Meta’s Muse Spark exceed 55–62%, reflecting faster progress from reasoning-focused training, larger scale, and architectural advances at competing labs. xAI’s releases have lifted Grok scores steadily since 2025, but the gap persists on verified, no-tools leaderboards. Trader sentiment for thresholds like 45%+ (favored) versus 55%+ or higher (lower odds) centers on whether upcoming Grok iterations or tool-augmented variants can close this distance before year-end, amid ongoing rapid benchmark gains industry-wide but xAI’s more modest recent verified improvements.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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