Above-normal Western Pacific tropical cyclone activity driven by a strong El Niño has positioned the greater-than-8 landfalls outcome as the market leader at 64.5%. China's National Climate Center pre-season outlook projected 7–9 impacts for the year, above the long-term average, amid forecasts of 24–26 total systems basin-wide. Through late August 2026, an early surge produced roughly two dozen named storms, with confirmed landfalls including Maysak, Bavi, Dolphin, Narra, and Saudel already contributing several events. August model guidance indicated near-normal China landfalls for the month (~2.5) alongside elevated genesis and Accumulated Cyclone Energy, while steering patterns and remaining peak-season months sustain upside risk. Trader consensus reflects this elevated baseline and limited downside scenarios.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
Greater than 8 65%
8 18%
7 14%
6 5.0%
$18,101 Обс.
$18,101 Обс.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
<1%
5
<1%
6
5%
7
14%
8
18%
Greater than 8
65%
Greater than 8 65%
8 18%
7 14%
6 5.0%
$18,101 Обс.
$18,101 Обс.
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$1,238 Обс.
<1%
5
$4,224 Обс.
<1%
6
$2,727 Обс.
5%
7
$1,579 Обс.
14%
8
$2,231 Обс.
18%
Greater than 8
$6,102 Обс.
65%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-normal Western Pacific tropical cyclone activity driven by a strong El Niño has positioned the greater-than-8 landfalls outcome as the market leader at 64.5%. China's National Climate Center pre-season outlook projected 7–9 impacts for the year, above the long-term average, amid forecasts of 24–26 total systems basin-wide. Through late August 2026, an early surge produced roughly two dozen named storms, with confirmed landfalls including Maysak, Bavi, Dolphin, Narra, and Saudel already contributing several events. August model guidance indicated near-normal China landfalls for the month (~2.5) alongside elevated genesis and Accumulated Cyclone Energy, while steering patterns and remaining peak-season months sustain upside risk. Trader consensus reflects this elevated baseline and limited downside scenarios.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$18,101Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).Above-normal Western Pacific tropical cyclone activity driven by a strong El Niño has positioned the greater-than-8 landfalls outcome as the market leader at 64.5%. China's National Climate Center pre-season outlook projected 7–9 impacts for the year, above the long-term average, amid forecasts of 24–26 total systems basin-wide. Through late August 2026, an early surge produced roughly two dozen named storms, with confirmed landfalls including Maysak, Bavi, Dolphin, Narra, and Saudel already contributing several events. August model guidance indicated near-normal China landfalls for the month (~2.5) alongside elevated genesis and Accumulated Cyclone Energy, while steering patterns and remaining peak-season months sustain upside risk. Trader consensus reflects this elevated baseline and limited downside scenarios.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Обсяг
$18,101Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Above-normal Western Pacific tropical cyclone activity driven by a strong El Niño has positioned the greater-than-8 landfalls outcome as the market leader at 64.5%. China's National Climate Center pre-season outlook projected 7–9 impacts for the year, above the long-term average, amid forecasts of 24–26 total systems basin-wide. Through late August 2026, an early surge produced roughly two dozen named storms, with confirmed landfalls including Maysak, Bavi, Dolphin, Narra, and Saudel already contributing several events. August model guidance indicated near-normal China landfalls for the month (~2.5) alongside elevated genesis and Accumulated Cyclone Energy, while steering patterns and remaining peak-season months sustain upside risk. Trader consensus reflects this elevated baseline and limited downside scenarios.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання