Recent seismic activity remains within normal global variability, with USGS data recording a 2026 maximum of M7.8 (Philippines, June) and M7.7 (Flores Sea, Indonesia, August 14), alongside multiple M7.0–7.4 events in August including Colombia and Peru. These occurred primarily along subduction zones of the Pacific Ring of Fire, consistent with historical rates of roughly 10–20 M7+ earthquakes annually and no evidence of accelerated strain or foreshock sequences signaling an imminent larger rupture. With only 30 days until September 30 resolution, the short window and absence of M8+ events to date keep market-implied odds favoring a maximum below M8.0, though ongoing USGS monitoring of aftershock zones and any new M6+ clusters could shift assessments if a great earthquake nucleates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by September 30?
How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by September 30?
НОВЕ
Oct 3, 2026
6.5+
100%
7.0+
68%
7.5+
35%
8.0+
14%
8.5+
2%
9.0+
2%
$7,711 Обс.
6.5+
$1,745 Обс.
100%
7.0+
$1,965 Обс.
68%
7.5+
$1,275 Обс.
35%
8.0+
$2,153 Обс.
14%
8.5+
$357 Обс.
2%
9.0+
$216 Обс.
2%
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."Recent seismic activity remains within normal global variability, with USGS data recording a 2026 maximum of M7.8 (Philippines, June) and M7.7 (Flores Sea, Indonesia, August 14), alongside multiple M7.0–7.4 events in August including Colombia and Peru. These occurred primarily along subduction zones of the Pacific Ring of Fire, consistent with historical rates of roughly 10–20 M7+ earthquakes annually and no evidence of accelerated strain or foreshock sequences signaling an imminent larger rupture. With only 30 days until September 30 resolution, the short window and absence of M8+ events to date keep market-implied odds favoring a maximum below M8.0, though ongoing USGS monitoring of aftershock zones and any new M6+ clusters could shift assessments if a great earthquake nucleates.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Обсяг
$7,711Дата завершення
Oct 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Вирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."Recent seismic activity remains within normal global variability, with USGS data recording a 2026 maximum of M7.8 (Philippines, June) and M7.7 (Flores Sea, Indonesia, August 14), alongside multiple M7.0–7.4 events in August including Colombia and Peru. These occurred primarily along subduction zones of the Pacific Ring of Fire, consistent with historical rates of roughly 10–20 M7+ earthquakes annually and no evidence of accelerated strain or foreshock sequences signaling an imminent larger rupture. With only 30 days until September 30 resolution, the short window and absence of M8+ events to date keep market-implied odds favoring a maximum below M8.0, though ongoing USGS monitoring of aftershock zones and any new M6+ clusters could shift assessments if a great earthquake nucleates.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Обсяг
$7,711Дата завершення
Oct 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Вирішувач
0x65070BE91...Recent seismic activity remains within normal global variability, with USGS data recording a 2026 maximum of M7.8 (Philippines, June) and M7.7 (Flores Sea, Indonesia, August 14), alongside multiple M7.0–7.4 events in August including Colombia and Peru. These occurred primarily along subduction zones of the Pacific Ring of Fire, consistent with historical rates of roughly 10–20 M7+ earthquakes annually and no evidence of accelerated strain or foreshock sequences signaling an imminent larger rupture. With only 30 days until September 30 resolution, the short window and absence of M8+ events to date keep market-implied odds favoring a maximum below M8.0, though ongoing USGS monitoring of aftershock zones and any new M6+ clusters could shift assessments if a great earthquake nucleates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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