Recent polling across multiple firms shows consistent majorities of 61-74% of Albertans favoring remaining a Canadian province on the October 19, 2026, referendum question, which asks whether to commence the constitutional process for a future binding independence vote. Support for advancing separation has stayed in the low-to-mid 20s percent range through September, with voters citing economic risks to pensions, services, and energy exports plus concerns over potential U.S. integration. The non-binding referendum, announced by Premier Danielle Smith in May after citizen petitions, includes other questions on immigration and provincial powers but has not shifted sentiment toward the separation option. This polling stability and public emphasis on risks underpin trader expectations that Alberta will not authorize independence steps in 2026.