Apple's long-standing practice of launching a new iPhone model each September underpins the market's near-certain consensus on a 2026 release. The company has maintained this annual cadence for nearly two decades, with supply chain reports and component sourcing patterns showing no major disruptions that would shift the timeline. While product delays from hardware redesigns, semiconductor shortages, or regulatory hurdles in key markets like the EU remain theoretically possible, none have materialized at a scale sufficient to push the flagship beyond the calendar year. Traders view the consistent cadence and absence of contrary signals as decisive.