The rapid expansion of the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak inside the Democratic Republic of Congo—now the country’s largest ever, with nearly 6,000 confirmed cases, 60 affected health zones, and fresh spillovers into additional provinces—keeps the market tightly balanced around the 54.5% “No” implied probability. Traders weigh the virus’s unprecedented speed, high population mobility, conflict zones, and incomplete contact tracing against the absence of any new-country confirmations since the imported French case and Uganda’s outbreak closure. Neighboring Central African Republic and South Sudan remain highest-risk for spillover due to porous borders, yet enhanced surveillance, the ongoing PHEIC, and vaccination campaigns in DRC create meaningful containment headwinds. A single confirmed case reported by any national health ministry or the WHO before October 1 would flip the odds decisively, while sustained daily case growth confined to DRC provinces would reinforce the current slight lean toward “No.”
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtEbola: new country confirmed before October 1?
Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1?
46% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 1, 2026
46% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The rapid expansion of the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak inside the Democratic Republic of Congo—now the country’s largest ever, with nearly 6,000 confirmed cases, 60 affected health zones, and fresh spillovers into additional provinces—keeps the market tightly balanced around the 54.5% “No” implied probability. Traders weigh the virus’s unprecedented speed, high population mobility, conflict zones, and incomplete contact tracing against the absence of any new-country confirmations since the imported French case and Uganda’s outbreak closure. Neighboring Central African Republic and South Sudan remain highest-risk for spillover due to porous borders, yet enhanced surveillance, the ongoing PHEIC, and vaccination campaigns in DRC create meaningful containment headwinds. A single confirmed case reported by any national health ministry or the WHO before October 1 would flip the odds decisively, while sustained daily case growth confined to DRC provinces would reinforce the current slight lean toward “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Thị trường mở: Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
Khối lượng
$132Ngày kết thúc
Oct 2, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The rapid expansion of the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak inside the Democratic Republic of Congo—now the country’s largest ever, with nearly 6,000 confirmed cases, 60 affected health zones, and fresh spillovers into additional provinces—keeps the market tightly balanced around the 54.5% “No” implied probability. Traders weigh the virus’s unprecedented speed, high population mobility, conflict zones, and incomplete contact tracing against the absence of any new-country confirmations since the imported French case and Uganda’s outbreak closure. Neighboring Central African Republic and South Sudan remain highest-risk for spillover due to porous borders, yet enhanced surveillance, the ongoing PHEIC, and vaccination campaigns in DRC create meaningful containment headwinds. A single confirmed case reported by any national health ministry or the WHO before October 1 would flip the odds decisively, while sustained daily case growth confined to DRC provinces would reinforce the current slight lean toward “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Khối lượng
$132Ngày kết thúc
Oct 2, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The rapid expansion of the Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak inside the Democratic Republic of Congo—now the country’s largest ever, with nearly 6,000 confirmed cases, 60 affected health zones, and fresh spillovers into additional provinces—keeps the market tightly balanced around the 54.5% “No” implied probability. Traders weigh the virus’s unprecedented speed, high population mobility, conflict zones, and incomplete contact tracing against the absence of any new-country confirmations since the imported French case and Uganda’s outbreak closure. Neighboring Central African Republic and South Sudan remain highest-risk for spillover due to porous borders, yet enhanced surveillance, the ongoing PHEIC, and vaccination campaigns in DRC create meaningful containment headwinds. A single confirmed case reported by any national health ministry or the WHO before October 1 would flip the odds decisively, while sustained daily case growth confined to DRC provinces would reinforce the current slight lean toward “No.”
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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