Recent inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, including core PCE near 3.3%, combined with resilient labor market data and solid GDP growth, have shifted the policy debate toward potential tightening under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The June 2026 dot plot showed nine participants projecting at least one hike by year-end, lifting market-implied odds for September action and creating a tight contest among pause and hike sequences for the remaining 2026 meetings. With the fed funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75%, trader consensus priced in the September 15–16 decision and subsequent October and December gatherings as pivotal, where incoming CPI, employment figures, and any updated projections could alter the path. The narrow spread across outcomes underscores uncertainty over whether supply-driven price pressures will persist or ease enough to favor holding rates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPause–Pause–Pause 26%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 14%
Hike–Hike–Pause 12%
$11,703 KL.
$11,703 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
10%
Hike–Pause–Pause
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
12%
Pause–Pause–Hike
14%
Pause–Pause–Pause
26%
Pause–Hike–Hike
7%
Pause–Hike–Pause
7%
Other
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause 26%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 14%
Hike–Hike–Pause 12%
$11,703 KL.
$11,703 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 KL.
10%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$489 KL.
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 KL.
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$429 KL.
12%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$253 KL.
14%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$9,180 KL.
26%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$237 KL.
7%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$336 KL.
7%
Other
$249 KL.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, including core PCE near 3.3%, combined with resilient labor market data and solid GDP growth, have shifted the policy debate toward potential tightening under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The June 2026 dot plot showed nine participants projecting at least one hike by year-end, lifting market-implied odds for September action and creating a tight contest among pause and hike sequences for the remaining 2026 meetings. With the fed funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75%, trader consensus priced in the September 15–16 decision and subsequent October and December gatherings as pivotal, where incoming CPI, employment figures, and any updated projections could alter the path. The narrow spread across outcomes underscores uncertainty over whether supply-driven price pressures will persist or ease enough to favor holding rates.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$11,703Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, including core PCE near 3.3%, combined with resilient labor market data and solid GDP growth, have shifted the policy debate toward potential tightening under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The June 2026 dot plot showed nine participants projecting at least one hike by year-end, lifting market-implied odds for September action and creating a tight contest among pause and hike sequences for the remaining 2026 meetings. With the fed funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75%, trader consensus priced in the September 15–16 decision and subsequent October and December gatherings as pivotal, where incoming CPI, employment figures, and any updated projections could alter the path. The narrow spread across outcomes underscores uncertainty over whether supply-driven price pressures will persist or ease enough to favor holding rates.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$11,703Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, including core PCE near 3.3%, combined with resilient labor market data and solid GDP growth, have shifted the policy debate toward potential tightening under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The June 2026 dot plot showed nine participants projecting at least one hike by year-end, lifting market-implied odds for September action and creating a tight contest among pause and hike sequences for the remaining 2026 meetings. With the fed funds rate steady at 3.50–3.75%, trader consensus priced in the September 15–16 decision and subsequent October and December gatherings as pivotal, where incoming CPI, employment figures, and any updated projections could alter the path. The narrow spread across outcomes underscores uncertainty over whether supply-driven price pressures will persist or ease enough to favor holding rates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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